UK Economics Chart Pack Back into recession in Q1 The UK returned to recession in Q1, making this the weakest peacetime recovery in a century. Reasonably positive activity surveys for the first quarter raise some doubts about the ONS’s Q1 estimate... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weakening outlook fuels growth calls The growing calls for euro-zone policymakers to shift their emphasis from austerity to growth have been fuelled by the continued deterioration in the outlook for the economy. Key forward-looking... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to change policy stance The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. The economy looks to have grown strongly in Q1, following floods that brought a slump in GDP late last year... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates on hold until politics stabilises The National Bank of Romania’s (NBR’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today suggests that the easing cycle is on hold until the political situation (and the leu) stabilises. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy loosening to come in Australia The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by a larger-than-expected 50bp to 3.75% today. We continue to expect conditions outside of the resources sector to be sluggish, as the currency... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Export improvement brings fragile recovery Emerging Asia’s economies fared better in Q1 than Q4. Both Singapore and Taiwan returned to quarterly growth, while Korea’s economy grew at a faster q/q rate. Business and consumer surveys show an... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking our interest rate forecasts We are making some small tweaks to our forecast for interest rates in Latin America. If the global economy weakens later this year, as we expect, it is still likely that most central banks in the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Chinese tourism bonanza for Asia The past 15 years has seen a surge in the number of mainland Chinese travelling overseas. Although Chinese tourists are becoming increasingly adventurous and travelling further afield, the vast... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan plays a poor hand badly The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board failed to impress with the additional monetary “stimulus” announced today. Any market impact from the ¥10 trillion increase in outright purchases of JGBs was offset by... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch No response to weaker growth At its forthcoming policy meeting, the ECB will resist pressure for it to take bolder action to solve the euro-zone’s problems. Despite acknowledging that the economic outlook has deteriorated... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed content to play waiting game The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bank of Japan running out of room to surprise On Friday the Bank of Japan is widely expected to announce another large increase in purchases of JGBs under its Asset Purchase Program (APP). Indeed, some commentators appear to believe that Japan’s... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook US recovery, European recession We expect world GDP to grow by around 3% both this year and next. The US economy is set to recover steadily but the euro-zone recession will deepen, causing the sovereign debt crisis to flare up again... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Extending APP horizon could allow ¥20tr of JGB purchases Expectations that the Bank of Japan will announce a further increase in asset purchases alongside the publication of updated economic forecasts on Friday are now so high that the Policy Board will... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What more can the Bank of Japan do? Many commentators appear to believe that Japan’s economy could recover from deflation and grow more strongly if only the Bank of Japan were willing to step up its asset purchases. Some also argue that... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada hoping for the best The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report paints a fairly upbeat picture for GDP growth this year and next. We think that this is unlikely to materialise, however, mainly because of the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
