UK Economics Focus Monetary policy in flux As part of the question of how monetary policy can support the economy further, attention is turning to whether the policy framework might need to be reformed. A new framework won’t solve the UK’s... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Hopes of smooth handover at the BoJ may be wishful thinking Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa’s announcement that he intends to leave office in March, a few weeks early, might ease the transition to a new leadership team. However, his move may not advance the... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Payroll tax hike to hit January incomes hard The expiry of the payroll tax cut will contribute to what could be a 3.5% m/m slump in personal disposable income in January. We expect any decline in real consumption to be pretty modest, however... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that retailers managed to escape relatively unscathed from the bad weather in the middle of the month. But with consumer confidence still low and real pay... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch GDP drop may not push MPC into action Although a strong case could be made for resuming quantitative easing (QE) at this month’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Committee has given no indication that it is on the cusp of... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to shrug off currency concerns The continued improvement in financial market conditions and surveys of economic activity has taken some of the pressure off the ECB this month. We expect the Bank to strike a relatively hawkish tone... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's external risks mean policy easing is off the cards Growing strains in the balance of payments continue to prevent any loosening of monetary policy to support Egypt’s struggling economy. We don’t think there will be any scope to ease policy until the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s modest uptick in consumer confidence is consistent with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that 2013 got off to a so-so start. But talk of a “triple-dip” recession following... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed swaps one hawk for another The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will weak consumer confidence hold back the recovery? Financial markets and many businesses have become more optimistic about the global economic outlook, but consumer confidence has typically remained weak. We expect households in the US and Europe in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Growth of the broad money supply is still quite strong, but it is heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the recent loosening of credit conditions has not fed through into a meaningful pick-up in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slower consumption growth to linger Slower growth in wages and salaries and lower consumer confidence suggest that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, to only half the 3.8% annualised gain in the third. We... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a beneficial impact on credit growth. Nonetheless, the recovery in lending is... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The drop in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 58.6 in January, from 66.7, appears to have been driven by the recent payroll tax increase. Even if confidence does... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle on shaky foundations Hungary’s external vulnerabilities mean that the scope for further interest rate cuts will depend on the forint holding up. The bigger picture, however, is that even if policy is eased further... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
