UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) December’s MPC minutes had something of an “end of term” feel and simply confirmed that the Committee is in wait and see mode. Perhaps the most notable aspect was further evidence of the MPC’s growing... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and Turkey cut rates in spite of external risks Policymakers in Hungary and Turkey cut interest rates today as the general improvement in global risk appetite in recent months has reduced concerns over external vulnerabilities and allowed the... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's central bank signals rate cut in early 2013 The Reserve Bank of India had already flagged that it was likely to leave rates unchanged today, at 8.0%. Of more interest was the accompanying statement which points to a rate cut in early 2013 and... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative ECB rates might do more harm than good Given the dubious benefits and possible costs of cutting deposit rates below zero, we still see ECB interest rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed's latest announcement that it will be doubling its open-ended QE3 purchases to $85bn per month means that we can expect a large increase in the monetary base in 2013. As with previous rounds... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What the LDP win means for Japan's economy As had been widely expected, Sunday’s election has returned the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan to power after a three-year absence. We can expect a two-pronged assault on deflation with significant... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's thresholds don't alter policy stance We welcome the Fed’s decision to link the timing of its first interest rate hike to numerical thresholds for the unemployment rate and inflation. But this tweak didn’t actually alter the stance of... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fresh thinking coming to Threadneedle Street Mr Carney’s arrival presents an obvious opportunity to reshape the monetary policy framework and the Governor-to-be last week gave a crucial indication that he, for one, is on board. 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's policy rate has further to fall The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 50bp to 9.5% today. We think monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in a bid to revive private sector credit growth, although rate... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Poor Tankan increases pressure on Japan's policymakers The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed business conditions deteriorated sharply in Q4, adding to evidence that the economy is likely to have contracted for a third consecutive quarter. The winner of... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates more likely to fall than rise in 2013 Chile’s economy is currently in a sweet spot between strong growth and low inflation, and we do not expect any moves in interest rates in the near term. But to the extent that rates are changed next... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Fed policy mean for commodities? The muted reaction to the Fed’s announcement yesterday supports our view that the boost to commodity prices from exceptionally loose US monetary policy has now largely run its course. The monetary... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
