Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank could still cut interest rates further Having lowered interest rates by a little more than the market expected today, the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting communiqué (unusually) didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack No shift of monetary stance January’s surge in bank lending in China does not signal any change in policy stance. Bank lending is always strong in January. Looked at in y/y terms, last month’s increase in loan growth was barely... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan again signals readiness to ease further The Bank of Japan’s decision to extend and expand the special loan facilities that were due to expire next month is a largely symbolic move that will not have a significant impact on financial... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economy to struggle amid unresolved political crisis Thailand’s economy was not as badly damaged by the outbreak of political unrest in Q4 last year as we had feared, but with the disruption escalating since late December, much worse probably lies ahead... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Low inflation should ease output gap dangers The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce phase two of forward guidance does not guarantee that interest rates will stay on hold for a long time yet... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP figures don't preclude the need for ECB action Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union’s economic situation improved marginally at the end of last year, but the ECB will need to take further action to ensure that the recovery... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: no rate cuts for now Despite the recent economic slowdown, high inflation and a widening current account deficit mean that the Peruvian Central Bank will probably have to keep monetary conditions tighter than they would... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia keeps one eye on the ruble The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left interest rates on hold today but signalled that it was ready to tighten policy if there were signs that the recent fall in the ruble was fuelling inflation... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ unlikely to be panicked into additional easing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the two-day Board meeting next Tuesday (18 th). This means no change to the asset purchase programme... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What would an early rate rise mean for property? Our view is that Bank Rate is on hold until late next year. But even if that is wrong and the monetary policy tightening cycle begins this year, market interest rates and the health of the economy... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rates hikes in Sweden remain a distant prospect The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold until 2015 Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold for a third consecutive month. With the rupiah showing signs of resilience, inflation likely to fall back in the second half of the year, and the... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea in no rush to tighten monetary policy The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold for a ninth consecutive month comes against a background of weak price pressures. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain subdued... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rates hikes in Sweden remain a distant prospect The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Revamped forward guidance to help keep rates low The decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England to place less emphasis on the unemployment rate as a guide to future policy should give them more wriggle room to keep interest rates low. The changes... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb 14.) The revamp of the Bank of England’s forward guidance unveiled in February’s Inflation Report is likely to shift the emphasis back to the benign outlook for inflation and should therefore ensure that... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
