US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is QQE working? Almost one year after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) by the Bank of Japan, the policy is working as well as could reasonably be expected. However, despite initial signs of... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt holds rates, but cuts could come back on to the agenda The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold for the second meeting in a row might suggest that the easing cycle of the past half a year has come to an end. However, given that... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small rate cut? While the euro-zone activity data has continued to show some improvement, the combination of very low inflation, the strong euro and falling liquidity in the banking sector has maintained pressure on... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Benign inflation outlook taking centre stage again The prospects for inflation are once again becoming the key factor driving monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the Bank of England, as both central banks have been forced to re-think their... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Given hopes that the ECB’s Asset Quality Review had temporarily depressed lending last year, January’s weak euro-zone monetary data will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is a downturn looming for Turkish retail property? Reflecting the recent hike in official interest rates, credit growth and consumer spending in Turkey are vulnerable to a slowdown. In turn, and given that rents are high while yields are low, there is... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to maintain neutral stance The Bank of Canada's key policy rate has been on hold at 1.0% for more than three years now. With inflation still uncomfortably low and economic growth still overly-dependent on debt-fuelled housing... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rates to stay lower than consensus expects Asian central banks have, for the most part, left interest rates on hold recently, with India the only major central bank in the region to adjust monetary policy over the past month. India raised... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a shift in Fed policy send profits into a tailspin? A rise in borrowing costs triggered by less accommodative monetary policy is likely to have an adverse effect on the profits of increasingly-indebted US companies. But we doubt margins will collapse. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Despite uncertainty surrounding the seasonal impact of Chinese New Year, today's downbeat PMI suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector continue to deteriorate. With no loosening of... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Does the world need more policy coordination? This weekend’s G20 meeting may well see calls for US policy-makers in particular to take more account of the global fallout from their actions, but we expect such demands to continue to fall on deaf... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) & MPC Minutes (Feb.) The latest labour market data showed that there is still plenty of spare capacity in the job market. Since the minutes of February’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Committee is committed to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates and signals further easing to come The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) cut interest rates last night and signalled that further easing is possible in the months ahead. However, with inflation likely to edge up over the coming months, we... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
