Asia Economics Update Korea's rate-cutting cycle has further to go The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB dampens hopes of further policy action The European Central Bank (ECB) appears content to sit on the sidelines for now and hope that the recent stabilisation of the euro-zone debt crisis continues. Eventually, however, President Draghi’s... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New NBH Governor could catch markets off guard The appointment of Hungary’s new central bank Governor, due to be announced next month, has the potential to shatter the recent calm in the local financial markets. In this Watch, we assess the... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall much further The Central Bank of Kenya’s larger-than-expected 150bp rate cut to 9.50% today suggests that the easing cycle may not yet be at an end, but with inflation close to bottoming out, growth now picking up... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE still in prospect (Jan 13) Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left policy on hold again today, we expect to see more quantitative easing (QE) this year, as well as a possible shift towards more radical options. 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will there be any real change at the Bank of Japan? Expectations that a higher inflation target and a “new accord” with the government will prompt much more aggressive monetary easing have continued to weaken the yen. However, a closer look at the... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle - gradual for now Polish interest rates will be reduced further over the coming few months but, for now at least, the stabilisation of the economy in the final quarter of last year appears to have dissuaded the MPC... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales (Nov.) Despite the small rise in economic sentiment in December, the latest batch of eurozone data still presented a decidedly downbeat picture of the state of the currency union’s economy at the end of last... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little room for policy stimulus in Romania In spite of the recent easing in financial market tensions, there is little scope for Romanian policymakers to cut interest rates to support growth. As such, we think the economy is likely to flatline... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch More QE likely this year, albeit not immediately The renewed pick-up in inflation and the tentative success of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) mean that more quantitative easing (QE) does not look imminent. But if the economic stagnation... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A testing new year Having prevented catastrophe in 2012 by pledging to do whatever it takes to save the euro, the European Central Bank will have to follow words with actions in 2013. While no policy changes are likely... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What to expect from Brazil in 2013 Brazil’s recovery will continue in 2013 but growth is likely to be lacklustre by historic standards. Above target inflation will prevent further policy support in the first few months of the year, but... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2013 In this final Weekly of the year we take a look ahead to some of main events and themes that will shape Japan’s economy in 2013. Key among these are the incoming LDP government’s first budget and the... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further easing risks undermining Bank of Japan independence At its Policy Board meeting today, the Bank of Japan extended its asset purchase program and announced a review of its inflation target. Since Sunday’s election, the incoming LDP government has... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan's monetary policy likely to be loosened in 2013 Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate at 1.875% today, as was widely expected. The economy’s dependence on export-led growth means that the state of external demand will remain the key... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
