ECB Watch Close to the limit? Following the apparent success of the ECB’s recent LTROs, the Governing Council meeting on April 4th is unlikely to produce any further significant policy measures. While acknowledging the ECB’s duty... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities shouldn't bank on more support from the Fed The positive reaction in commodity markets to Fed Chairman Bernanke's seemingly dovish speech on Monday has already begun to fade, which makes sense to us. What's more, any additional bond buying is... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest monetary data have confirmed that the ECB’s generous lending is boosting the broad money supply and perhaps even stimulating government bond purchases. But, for now at least, lending to... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Better export growth will help bolster GDP growth We expect GDP growth to slow after the first quarter, as consumption growth fades and housing investment begins to decline. Only a pick-up in business investment growth and a positive contribution... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Hungary hamstrung by the markets Central banks in both Hungary and Turkey kept interest rates unchanged today as the recent increase in market tensions snuffed out any hope of a shift towards looser policy. We expect the bias towards... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold, awaiting IMF deal Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) kept interests rates on hold today. And although it looks like the CBE is taking small steps towards easing policy, much now hinges on whether an IMF deal can be agreed. If... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012: Not rocking the boat This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand pauses to assess recovery The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as expected. The speed of the local recovery from last year’s floods and global developments will determine monetary policy decisions in... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Feb.) & MPC minutes (Mar.) February’s public finance figures got Budget Day off to a bad start for the Chancellor, while the minutes of March’s MPC meeting showed that the door to more quantitative easing is still ajar. 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Still waiting for stimulus to be felt The data for the first two months of the year were in general downbeat. Everything from imports to electricity and cement production slowed. Still, Q1 was always likely to be weak. Policy loosening... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack A promising start to 2012, but will it last? Growth in emerging Asia looks to have picked up in Q1. Strength in the US is helping to offset weakness in Europe for Asia’s exporters. There are encouraging signs of domestic demand improving early... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB really solved the crisis? The ECB’s latest liquidity operations appear to have averted, or at least delayed, a looming disaster in the euro-zone banking sector. But it would be wrong to think that they have solved the region’s... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s growth model under the spotlight News that Brazil last year overtook the UK to become the world’s sixth largest economy is further evidence, if any was needed, of the continued rebalancing of global economic power towards the... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update It’s the levels, stupid! The wide dispersion of growth rates across Emerging Europe masks big differences in the fundamental health of the region’s economies. In this Watch we explain why looking at levels of GDP is a much... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What can be done to boost growth? The Bank of Japan’s extension last week of its program to support growth sectors is unlikely to make a major contribution to lifting Japan’s relatively low potential growth rate of just 0.5%. Although... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does the US still matter to Asia? The recent run of improved data from the US has led us to raise our US GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013. But we believe that improved prospects for the US will make little difference to emerging... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
