US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) It is mildly encouraging that consumption in January did not capitulate completely after the recent tax hikes. And while higher taxes and the latest leap in gasoline prices could yet hit sales harder... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update More rate cuts to come from the Swedish Riksbank The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold reflects concerns that further rate cuts may prompt household debt to rise further with potentially damaging longer-term consequences... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More rate cuts to come from the Swedish Riksbank The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold reflects concerns that further rate cuts may prompt household debt to rise further with potentially damaging longer-term consequences... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bank of Japan to continue to lag well behind the Fed The recent slide in the yen against the dollar has mainly been driven by speculation that the Bank of Japan will soon start to loosen monetary policy much more aggressively. However, there is little... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese consumers confident in “Abenomics” The jump in consumer confidence in January underlines just how big a task the Abe government has to meet the high expectations now spreading well beyond the financial markets. However, the improvement... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Buoyant domestic demand to support regional growth Buoyant domestic demand should ensure that sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the world’s best performing regions over the next two years, even if the global economy remains weak. We are particularly... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's Central Bank resists government pressure to ease policy The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept its benchmark interest rates on hold today and signalled that, despite growing pressure from the government to ease policy, any move in rates in either direction... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Our verdict on Governor Shirakawa We expect the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board to conclude this Thursday (14th) without any major policy initiatives. A weak Q4 GDP figure might still prompt the Board to add... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would more flexible inflation-targeting achieve? Mark Carney suggested last Thursday that, rather than changing the monetary framework altogether, introducing more flexibility into the existing inflation-targeting regime is his preferred option. The... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate change still looks a distant prospect The latest data do little to change our view that Peruvian interest rates are going nowhere this year. Persistent concerns over the strength of the sol mean that policymakers are far more likely to... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its tone slightly, but makes no promises The European Central Bank (ECB) took a slightly softer tone this month, acknowledging that a stronger exchange rate might alter the inflation outlook. But President Draghi stopped a long way short of... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising wealth will continue to boost GDP Further increases in both house and equity prices would take net household wealth back above prerecession levels later this year, perhaps helping to boost GDP by around 0.7%. This wealth effect should... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC maintains accommodative stance Not only did the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leave policy on hold again today, but in his testimony to the Treasury Committee, Governor-to-be Mark Carney sounded less keen than before on a change... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Door hasn't closed on looser policy in Czech and Poland Policymakers in both Poland and the Czech Republic are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook. But even so, we still expect a further cut in Polish interest rates next month. And while... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Another tough year to get through Consumers will have to endure a further tough year. We no longer expect consumer spending to rise at all in real terms in 2013. But a recovery should start next year. 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers go their separate ways Strong employment growth, coupled with favourable credit dynamics, should ensure that consumer spending continues to outperform in Emerging Asia over the coming years. By contrast, consumption looks... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
