Asia Economics Update Indonesian rupiah has further to fall The Indonesian rupiah has been one of the worst performing currencies in emerging Asia so far this year. We think an intensification of the euro-zone crisis, a worsening of the trade balance, rising... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to do more just yet The European Central Bank (ECB) continued to indicate that it is up to national policymakers to take further actions to address the euro-zone crisis, rather than the Bank itself. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK remains a safe haven from euro-zone turmoil The threat to the UK from the euro-zone has continued to intensify, with concerns building about the Spanish banking system in recent days. But the UK has so far retained its safe-haven status, with... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada back in dovish mode The Bank of Canada's policy statement, while keeping its policy rate at 1.00%, backed off from the suggestion in the previous statement that interest rates may need to rise. The Bank is now more... 5th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Currencies and equities fall sharply, further falls likely Following a strong start to the year, most Asian currencies and equities fell sharply in May. The main reason is that renewed concerns over the euro-zone’s future brought a return in global risk... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB provide more support? The further escalation of the euro-zone crisis has intensified the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take further remedial action. But while President Draghi may hold open the prospect of... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil interest rates: falling further for longer Last night’s decision by the Central Bank of Brazil to slow the pace of interest rate cuts suggests that we are getting close to the end of the easing cycle. Nonetheless, we continue to expect the... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update External financing risks resurface for Hungary and Turkey Policymakers in both Hungary and Turkey kept rates on hold today, but clearly talk of looser policy to support growth is premature. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch The long pause in policy interest rate just getting started While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will keep its policy interest rate at 1.00% next week, we think the Bank's upcoming policy statement, due out on Tuesday, will be more downbeat... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s elections add to vulnerabilities Early results from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election appear to have polarised society, pitting Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against the old guard. The outcome... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How much scope does Asia have to cut interest rates? We continue to expect central banks in Asia to cut their policy rates this year by more than the consensus anticipates. Vietnam is likely to cut most aggressively, as both growth and inflation there... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still biased towards further easing There is no real substance to suggestions that the lack of any explicit reference to “powerful” easing in the Bank of Japan’s policy statement today signals a shift towards a more neutral stance... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The relatively dovish tone of the minutes of May’s MPC meeting suggested that the door to more quantitative easing (QE) is still open. We continue to expect the asset purchases to be resumed soon. 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Better placed than most to weather Greece exit storm Political deadlock in Greece has re-ignited market fears of euro-zone break-up. While Asia would not escape unscathed from turmoil associated with Greece’s departure from the currency union, the... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
