China Economics Update Second rate cut points to deepening growth concerns Today’s unexpected interest rate cut suggests that policymakers in China are increasingly rattled by the state of the economy. The move’s loosening impact will be amplified by the decision to increase... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB cuts rates but signals inability to do more July’s ECB interest rate cut did little to alter the euro-zone’s bleak economic outlook, particularly as the Bank indicated that it is unlikely to pursue any bolder unconventional measures for now. 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia keeps rates on hold, but cuts likely soon Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3% today. This came as no surprise. Resilient domestic demand is for now compensating for an export slowdown. Nevertheless, we still expect... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation outlook improves The near-term inflation outlook has improved significantly in recent weeks. Inflation has fallen below 3% for the first time since the end of 2009. It will come under further downward pressure from... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jun) June’s CIPS/Markit report on services showed that activity in the biggest part of the economy is weakening, implying that the MPC is almost certain to decide on more quantitative easing (QE) at its... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: persistent inflation leaves policymakers in a bind Structural rigidities mean that inflation will be slower to fall back in Uruguay than in the rest of the region this year. As a consequence, policymakers have less space to support growth via monetary... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weaker inflation to provide little relief Euro-zone activity indicators continue to point to a broad-based worsening in economic conditions. Admittedly, the prospect of further falls in CPI inflation (see Chart) following the recent plunge in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The weakness of money and lending growth is one factor likely to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to announce more quantitative easing (QE) this week. 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates on hold, but more policy loosening to come The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 3.5% today, but the RBA's loosening cycle is still not over. Weakening external demand and recent falls in commodity prices will slow the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Would more QE do any good? As part of its renewed drive to rejuvenate the economy, the MPC looks set to announce more purchases of government bonds soon. But further gilt purchases may do little good and could even become... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Case for interest rate cuts is building in Colombia The deterioration in the outlook for Colombia has forced us to review our interest rates forecast. With the economy slowing more abruptly than we had expected, the rate cuts that we had pencilled in... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch QE3 to get going There have been plenty of signals over the past few weeks that more quantitative easing (QE) is on its way. Although the Committee could wait until August’s Inflation Report, there seems to be little... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian Financial Crisis – 15 years on Monday 2nd July marks the 15-year anniversary of the start of the Asian Financial Crisis. In retrospect, the region weathered the crisis and its aftermath well. However, trend growth has slowed... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are not yet having the desired effect. While money supply growth is picking up, bank lending to the private sector remains... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) Euro-zone CPI inflation was unchanged in June, but this does not alter our view that it will fall sharply over the coming months and the ECB will cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
