Latin America Economics Update Peru: weaker currency bolsters case for holding rates The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) has deployed a raft of measures to combat currency appreciation in early 2013 and for the moment, at least, appears to be succeeding in its efforts. With the nuevo sol... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hints at limited support at best While some members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council voted for an interest rate cut today, the majority still seems unconvinced that this would do any good. What’s more, the Bank... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC stays its hand, for now Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left policy on hold again today, we expect that it will not take much to swing a majority of members in support of more stimulus in the near future. While... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia under little pressure to hike rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) held its overnight rate at 3.0% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. Despite a pick-up in GDP growth, there is little pressure on BNM to hike rates in 2013. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil paves the way for policy tightening Brazil left interest rates unchanged last night but the accompanying statement suggested that without fresh evidence that inflation pressures are easing, policy will be tightened at the next month’s... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan awaits Kuroda but will surely move in April The Bank of Japan’s decision to leave policy on hold today was widely expected in the light of the leadership changes due later this month. Two Board members did propose tweaks to the framework which... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada continues to back off rate hikes With inflation now below target and the economy operating well below its potential, it was no surprise to see the Bank of Canada back even further away from raising interest rates. We still think that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank signals end of easing cycle Today’s larger-than-expected cut in Polish interest rates means that we have probably reached the end of the easing cycle. But while some analysts are now suggesting that interest rates will be hiked... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four years of 0.5% rates - at least another two to go Tomorrow’s MPC meeting marks the fourth anniversary of official interest rates reaching their record low of just 0.5% in March 2009. We doubt that they will rise before the second half of 2015 at the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chilean consumer can’t keep driving economic growth Chilean consumer spending is growing at an unsustainable pace and needs to cool if the economy is to avoid storing up problems for the future. We expect to see a gradual moderation in spending this... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMI Survey (Feb.) January’s rise in euro-zone retail sales and the fall in the composite PMI in February add to evidence that while the recession in the region is slowing, it is not over. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that a resurgence in consumer spending is underway. But temporary factors can likely explain much of that month’s strong growth. At... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Five issues to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Tuesday. Expectations, as usual, are low. This year though, with a new leadership keen to project an energetic image... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC close to doing more There is a reasonable chance that quantitative easing (QE) is resumed at this month’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The Committee is taking a more flexible approach to the inflation target... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Two-year inflation target would be a step too far One of the policy changes that the new Bank of Japan Governor is likely to consider is a further clarification of the 2% inflation target. Mr Kuroda himself has reportedly suggested an explicit... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
