Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to remain lower for longer The slowdown in Colombian growth has been driven as much by structural as by cyclical factors, and suggests that interest rates could remain low for an extended period. We expect at least one more... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer spending in London will continue to outperform Between 2006 and 2012 London was probably the only UK region to experience a real rise in consumer spending, of perhaps 0.7% a year. This particularly reflected growth in the financial, professional... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising car sales unlikely to signal general consumer pick-up One rare bright spot in the consumer sector recently has been the pick-up in spending on cars. While cars comprise a relatively small part of overall consumer spending, this could still be promising... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African Reserve Bank faces difficult balancing act Concerns over the effects of a weakening rand on inflation will continue to leave the South African Reserve Bank with little room to loosen policy in order to support growth over the coming months. 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A new front in the "currency war" An improvement in risk appetite since the turn of the year has supported further gains in Latin American financial markets. But with the good news has come renewed upward pressure on the region’s... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak economy bolsters case for Polish rate cuts There is a growing sense in the markets that the Polish National Bank could pause its easing cycle next month, but given the weakness of the most recent data, we think the case is less clear cut. For... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada backing down on tightening bias In a surprise climb down, the Bank of Canada admitted that the need to withdraw policy stimulus is less imminent, partly reflecting the weaker global economic outlook, but mainly because the housing... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) A lack of demand, rather than the level of interest rates or problems with credit supply, remains the key factor holding back broad monetary growth in Japan. 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are we really on the verge of interest rate cuts in Mexico? The dovish tone of the statement that accompanied last week’s decision by the Mexican central bank to keep interest rates on hold has fuelled speculation that policy could soon be eased. Growth has... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we worry about the Bank of Japan’s independence? The Bank of Japan’s adoption of an explicit 2% inflation target after this was called for by the new government has added to fears that central banks worldwide will be forced to monetise public debt... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for substantial improvement in labour market The first FOMC meeting of the New Year, which concludes next Wednesday (30th January), is unlikely to bring any major changes coming, as it does, only six weeks after the Fed expanded its large-scale... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC mins. (Jan.), Speeches by King and Cameron The minutes of January’s MPC meeting suggested that the views of its members are becoming increasingly polarised, indicating that next month’s decision over whether or not to provide the economy with... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's solid 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales volumes, paired with a similar increase in wholesale trade, suggests that monthly GDP grew by 0.3% m/m in November. Nonetheless, there is still some... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little scope for looser policy in Turkey Although the Turkish central bank cut some of its key interest rates today, this doesn’t necessarily amount to monetary easing. In fact, we think there is little scope for falls in market interest... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s policy overhaul fails to impress Despite the much-hyped announcement of “open-ended easing” to meet a new 2% inflation target, today’s policy overhaul by the Bank of Japan disappoints in many respects. In particular, the ceiling on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Room for relatively small rate cuts in Nigeria Slowing inflation and sub-trend growth in Nigeria mean that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but concerns over fiscal profligacy and a weakening currency limits the room for significant easing... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
