US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite lower household income and surging gasoline prices, consumers were relatively upbeat in February. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway’s housing boom won’t force rates higher Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s housing boom won’t force rates higher Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Low inflation leaves room for more rate cuts A combination of weak economic growth and low inflation suggest that Colombian interest rates have further to fall. We now expect a further 50bps of cuts to 3.25% over the coming months. 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers step-up rhetoric while EM currencies fall Talk of “currency wars” remains rife among EM policymakers but most EM currencies have actually weakened over the past month. This partly reflects growing investor fears of official intervention, but... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBC tilts towards tightening Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fears about German wage growth are overdone The recent rise in German wage growth and signs of a further increase to come have prompted fears of a pick-up in inflation and loss of competitiveness. We think that these worries are overdone... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed about to take the punch bowl away? Despite the uncertainty created by the latest FOMC minutes, we do not believe that the Fed will be in any hurry to halt its additional asset purchases completely. Nonetheless, the reaction in the... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The EC consumer confidence survey rose for the third consecutive month in February in line with the general pick up in sentiment across the euro-zone. But the survey remains consistent with further... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide reflects more than the “Carney short” While some of the pound’s recent fall probably reflects expected changes in monetary policy – the so-called “Carney short” – it has also reflected the growing view that the UK’s economic outlook is... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed contemplating early end to QE3 The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting in late January suggest that rising fears over the potential costs from further quantitative easing could prompt Fed officials to reduce or even halt the... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) February’s MPC minutes provided another clear demonstration of the Committee’s increasingly flexible approach to inflation targeting. We continue to think that more QE is only a few months away. 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative rates: lessons from Denmark The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s QE3 policy has contributed to the acceleration in the growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money to a four-year high of 6.5% in January. But the continued expansion in the Fed’s balance... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil consumption: holding up for now Despite the surprise fall in retail sales in December, Brazilian consumer spending growth appears to have been strong in the final quarter of last year. The problem is that with local producers either... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in a Catch-22 Although the Turkish central bank cut interest rates today, it also raised reserve requirements, so the overall impact on monetary conditions is ambiguous. The key point is that policymakers are in a... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
