Asia Economics Update Indian inflation rises but Reserve Bank still likely to cut rates Despite a rise in headline inflation in May, we think the Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut the repo rate by 25bp at its rate-setting meeting on Monday. The underlying inflation rate has not... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Renewed rate cuts likely in the Philippines by year-end The Philippines central bank (BSP) today left its main policy rate on hold at 4%, as expected. Although interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the next few months, with the crisis in the euro... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf are well placed to weather the storm One of the main channels through which the euro-zone debt crisis could affect the oil-rich Gulf economies is via a drop in foreign capital inflows due to heightened global risk aversion. In particular... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed probably won't act as soon as next week The intensifying crisis in the euro-zone coupled with signs that the US economic recovery is faltering have led to speculation that the Fed will provide more monetary stimulus at the next two-day FOMC... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to loosen policy by year-end The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. While Thailand’s economy bounced back strongly in Q1 from last year’s flood-induced slump, the focus has now... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy on hold for now as euro-zone crisis pauses The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will conclude its two-day June meeting this Friday (15th). We expect this to be uneventful for three reasons. First, the weekend’s bailout of Spain’s banks has reduced... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would trigger QE3? Unless the economy loses a lot more momentum or the eventual financial contagion from the crisis in Europe is much greater than we expect, the Fed is unlikely to launch a third round of asset... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to remain on hold in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold for the fourth consecutive month and we expect rates to remain at their current levels for the rest of the year. However, in contrast to the... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households snap up Treasuries Households appear to be making a concerted effort to hold safer assets. In fact, in the first quarter they bought more Treasuries than the Fed and overseas investors combined. Should foreign appetite... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea likely to change policy stance soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) has become increasingly worried about the outlook for growth, but lingering inflation concerns are dissuading the central bank from loosening policy. We expect inflation to... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm policymakers content to play waiting game on rates Today’s decisions by Peru and Mexico to leave interest rates unchanged support our belief that, in the near-term, most of the region’s policymakers will await clearer evidence on the health of the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another rate cut in Vietnam, more to follow The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) today announced the fourth reduction in interest rates in as many months amid sharp falls in inflation, problems in the banking sector and weak economic growth... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Downturn spreading to the core The euro-zone may have narrowly avoided falling back into recession around the turn of the year, but timelier data have revealed that economic prospects are deteriorating. Activity surveys, such as... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate cuts underline determination to shore up growth Today’s benchmark interest rate cuts are a strong signal that policymakers are going all out to shore up China’s economy. Commercial banks are also being allowed to set both lending and deposit rates... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE3 won’t be long Lingering upside risks to inflation prompted the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep its asset purchase programme on hold at today’s meeting, despite the increasing turmoil in the euro-zone... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
