China Economics Update Income inequality is an economic as well as social issue Wide income inequality in China is undermining economic stability as well generating concerns about social tensions. 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A lacklustre festive season 2012 seems to have ended on a fairly underwhelming note with consumers relatively cautious over the festive period. 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a one-year low of 71.3 in January, from 72.9, suggests that the actual onset of lower after-tax incomes in the New... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubt Today’s Q4 GDP data confirm the turnaround in China’s economy but they show too that it is reliant on the single engine of investment. Continued policy easing would be needed to prolong the... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s drop in the official measure of retail sales volumes confirmed that it was a fairly lacklustre festive period for the high street and provided more evidence that the UK has slipped into a... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rising inflation narrows space for further easing A recent pick-up in inflation has reduced the space for further policy easing in Brazil, and we expect the Selic rate to remain at 7.25% until at least mid-year. Further ahead, if we are right to... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Solid but unspectacular outlook for South African retail sector Growth in South African retail sales beat consensus expectations in November. But with consumer confidence falling due to rising inflation and fears over job security, the outlook for private... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Tightening bias will be dropped before year end We expect the Bank of Canada to continue justifying its tightening bias next week on the basis of high household debt. Before year end, however, we expect the Bank to drop talk of rate hikes. The weak... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bold headlines, but little new of substance? We expect the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board to conclude next Tuesday (22nd) with a joint statement on policy cooperation between the Bank and the government, the unveiling of a... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy risks in Hungary to spell further forint weakness Amid the public spat over who exactly is responsible for the recent sell-off in the Hungarian forint, the point that is being overlooked is that local factors, rather than global risk appetite, now... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Dec. 12) The apparent strength of retail sales growth over the final few months of last year suggests that the looming fiscal cliff, including the risk of higher taxes, did little to deter consumers over the... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to expect from Peru's central bank in 2013 The effectiveness of Peru’s benchmark interest rate as a policy instrument is constrained by high levels of foreign currency lending and concerns over the strength of the sol. Further increases in... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank signals rate cuts The Central Bank of Russia left its benchmark interest rates on hold this morning as was widely expected. More importantly, the tone of the accompanying statement reveals that the Bank has become... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall further as growth falters Record levels of foreign direct investment into the commodities sector suggest that Dutch Disease will continue to drag on the Colombian economy this year. We expect policymakers to react with another... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly $1trn coin not a realistic option The fanciful idea that the US Treasury could circumvent the debt ceiling by minting a $1trn platinum coin suddenly exploded in popularity last week. This is never going to happen. One question that... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB keeps its head in the sand The ECB’s comments last week dealt a blow to any hopes that it might provide more support to the euro-zone economy. With financial market conditions improving, the Bank no longer seems to be... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
