Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A rate cut but no more With the euro-zone’s debt crisis intensifying again and the economic downturn deepening and broadening, we think that the ECB will opt to cut interest rates by 25bps in July. But the Bank seems... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech stimulus starts, what next? Czech policymakers have finally responded to the deteriorating growth outlook by cutting interest rates to a record low today. But with little scope for more conventional policy stimulus, we think... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further policy easing expected this year The consensus view that the current strength of domestic demand rules out rate cuts in Chile looks to us to be fundamentally misplaced. Instead, in the absence of fresh rises in metals prices... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are lower oil prices a blessing for Asia? The recent collapse in oil prices will help most Asian economies, with oil-intensive Thailand and India benefiting the most. The trouble though is that oil prices are falling because the global... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in India? India’s economic troubles are mostly self-inflicted and result from policy paralysis and opposition to reforms. That is unlikely to change until the 2014 general elections at the earliest 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weaker Polish data could bring rate cuts back onto agenda Signs that the Polish economy is slowing should quell calls for rate hikes over the coming months. But growing troubles in the euro-zone mean that interest rate cuts are likely to come back on to the... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still reluctant to launch QE3 The Fed appears to be edging closer to launching a third round of asset purchases (QE3), but it will not pull the trigger unless the economy loses more momentum and/or the threat to US financial... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rate outlook hinges on exports Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate at 1.875% today, as was widely expected. The economy’s dependence on export-led growth means that the global outlook will remain the key consideration... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC eases slightly, but rates to remain high The Turkish MPC shifted slightly towards easing mode at today’s meeting. Nonetheless, with the current account deficit still large and a sharp rise in short-term external debt, we expect monetary... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers have space to support growth The authorities in most Latin American countries have space to loosen policy in the event of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. Indeed, we expect to see policy easing in most economies over... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed twists again, but no QE3 yet In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Market Data (Apr./May) June’s MPC minutes left an extension of quantitative easing (QE) within the next month or two looking even more likely. We are sticking with our forecast for another £50bn of gilt purchases at the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What is the optimum re-configuration of the euro-zone? The economically optimal re-configuration of the euro-zone would involve the survival of a core Northern euro incorporating Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium. France’s position... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India still likely to cut rates later this year The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly left its repo rate at 8.0% today. Nonetheless, we expect it to cut rates by 50bp by the end of this year as its focus is likely to shift back towards... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold as political conditions worsen The decision by Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) to keep interest rates on hold was understandably overshadowed by rising tensions following today’s recommendation by the constitutional court that... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
