US Data Response Ind. Production (Feb.) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The combination of the payroll tax hike and rising gasoline prices was probably behind the unexpected drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to a 15-month low of 71.8 in... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers still waiting for inflation to fall The high rate of inflation continues to prevent the Central Bank of Russia from easing policy to support the slowing economy. But with inflation now close to peaking, interest rate cuts are possible... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean central bank edging closer to FX intervention Chile’s central bank (BCC) stopped short of announcing measures to weaken the peso at last night’s policy meeting, but its accompanying statement revealed mounting concerns about the strength of the... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will continue to push back rate hikes The Norges Bank’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged reflects the dilemma facing the Bank as a strong currency prevents it from hiking rates to stem a housing boom. These countervailing... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB ready to do more if deflation risks rise The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending its exchange rate ceiling. But even at the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB ready to do more if deflation risks rise The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending its exchange rate ceiling. But even at the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will continue to push back rate hikes The Norges Bank’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged reflects the dilemma facing the Bank as a strong currency prevents it from hiking rates to stem a housing boom. These countervailing... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to taper QE3 soon We don’t expect that the recent improvement in labour market conditions and growing concerns over the costs of ultra-loose monetary policy will prompt the Fed to reduce the size of its monthly asset... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Older workers offer a mixed blessing The UK’s impressive employment performance has been driven in large part by a dramatic rise in employment among elderly people. This is a desirable development in light of the UK’s ageing population... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb. 13) February’s retail sales figures suggest that, so far at least, households are coping well with the burden of more taxation and higher gasoline prices. It now looks as though consumption growth in the... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia's new central bank governor The decision by President Putin to nominate his economic advisor, Elvira Nabiullina, to be the next governor of the Central Bank of Russia is a blow to hopes for a more independent monetary policy... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate cutting cycle has probably ended The Central Bank of Kenya kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 9.50% today and, with inflation having bottomed out and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think this marks... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What impact will sterling's drop have on retailers' profits? Sterling’s fall has clouded the outlook for retailers’ profits by pushing up import prices. However, their profitability should still improve over the next year or two thanks to the fading of other... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico rate cut likely to be a one-off Today’s cut in Mexican interest rates was a surprise, particularly in light of further evidence that the US economy is strengthening. We suspect that it was a one-off and do not think it marks the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy-wide deleveraging may be over The economy-wide deleveraging process, which has constrained the economic recovery over the past four years, may now be over. Moreover, as any remaining deleveraging in the household sector can be... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
