Europe Economics Weekly Weaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zone The drop in the euro exchange rate to its most competitive trade-weighted level in over nine years might appear to improve the euro-zone’s growth prospects and reduce the need for the uncompetitive... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How is China’s slowdown affecting emerging Asia? Figures released on Friday showed that China’s economy grew by just 7.6% y/y in the second quarter, the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009. The lead article this week examines the effect of... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising pound dents UK export hopes further The further rise in the pound against the euro appears to reflect safe-haven demand for UK assets and the weakening outlook for the euro-zone economy. These factors could yet push sterling higher. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru still on course for rate cuts later in the year While there was little doubt that Chile and Peru would leave interest rates unchanged last night, we continue to believe that both countries will lower rates before year-end. On balance, we feel that... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts rates, further cuts likely soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate to 3% today. It was a surprise that the move came at this meeting, but we have long held the view that rates would need to be cut this year to support the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia keep rates on hold, no change likely soon Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at a record low of 5.75%. Although inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second half of the year, with global demand set to remain... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan saves its ammunition The latest tweaks to the Asset Purchase Program maintain the bias towards “powerful easing” at the Bank of Japan, although for now the Policy Board has kept additional JGB buying in reserve. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to stay lower for longer Last night’s decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to cut interest rates was widely expected. With policymakers struggling to revive the economy, and external headwinds brewing, we think that... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Interest rates likely to remain low for years The Bank of Canada policy announcement next week, which almost surely will maintain the policy interest rate at 1%, is likely to acknowledge that the more modest outlook for the global economy has... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation fell in June on the back of easing core price pressures and a modest drop in food inflation. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economy could make or break the new president’s tenure The election of Dr. Mohamed Mursi as Egypt’s first democratically-elected president last month represented a significant step in the country’s transition. But as we expected, tensions between the new... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB out of ammo? After cutting interest rates to a historic low last week, ECB President Mario Draghi suggested that there was little more that the ECB could do. As far as conventional policy is concerned, this may... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fear another recession Although it is very clear that the US economy has lost a lot of momentum, there are no real indications that it will soon come to a complete standstill or even go into reverse. The latest ISM surveys... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly The Philippines – on course for investment grade status The Philippines looks increasingly likely to be awarded investment grade status sometime in the next couple of years. A major improvement in the country’s fiscal position and much better macro... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s talks with IMF/EU won’t be plain sailing The passage of Hungary’s new Central Bank Act has lifted the last obstacle to the start of negotiations with the IMF and European Union. But this is merely the beginning. Numerous issues will need to... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish bank has little room for manoeuvre A combination of slowing inflation and disappointing Q1 GDP data has led to speculation that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) might start to loosen monetary policy. We are sceptical. With the current... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
