UK Economics Chart Pack Pick-up in spending will be difficult to sustain While consumer spending has shown some signs of life in the first part of this year, the momentum will be difficult to sustain. Although some of the measures announced by the Chancellor in the Budget... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rate hike a sign of desperation The Egyptian central bank’s move to raise interest rates in spite of the weak economy shows that policymakers have run out of options. Capital controls and FX intervention haven’t been sufficient to... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Forward-looking guidance unlikely to save the day Following the rather vague change to the MPC’s remit announced in yesterday’s Budget, the ball is now back in the Bank of England’s court. But even if the Monetary Policy Committee decides to follow... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget measures amount to small beer for consumers While yesterday’s Budget resulted in a net giveaway to consumers, it did little to reduce the blow to household incomes which will be inflicted by further waves of austerity in the coming years. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks with its QE plans for now The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the slowdown deepens A raft of weak activity data for February puts a big dent in hopes for a rebound in the Russian economy in Q1. What’s more, there are further signs that the slowdown is being driven as much by... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak South African rand leaves little room for rate cuts Concerns over the impact of a weak rand on inflation leaves the South African Reserve Bank with little room to cut interest rates over the coming months, despite the outlook for subdued economic... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) While March’s MPC minutes revealed that the three members who voted for more QE last month remained on their own in calling for more stimulus, we continue to think that the Committee will do more... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2013 Confidence is rising, but business leaders in China are less upbeat about conditions for their own firms than they are about the wider economy. This suggests that sentiment may be running ahead of... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rate cuts still possible later this year Although the Central Bank of Nigeria left interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, we still think that monetary easing will come onto the agenda later this year. However, a combination of loose fiscal... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s central bank becoming hamstrung by macro risks The Reserve Bank of India stuck to the script and eased monetary policy today. Looking ahead, the market consensus is for another 25bp cut before year-end. However, we expect a long policy hold. While... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the Cyprus crisis means for the rest of the world A further escalation of the crisis in tiny Cyprus may have global implications well beyond the immediate market reactions today. It could influence the course of fiscal policy in the UK and monetary... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BANXICO unlikely to step in to stem peso appreciation yet We expect the Mexican peso to continue to outperform its peers over the coming months. But while the peso may appreciate towards 12/$ this year, we doubt that the central bank (BANXICO) is about to... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A more sympathetic view of Mr. Shirakawa A look back at the Bank of Japan’s actions under Governor Shirakawa suggests that many commentators have been judging him too harshly. Monetary policy was loosened much less aggressively in Japan than... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation outlook remains benign Inflation has been on a downtrend trend across most of Asia over the past year, allowing central banks to keep monetary policy loose to support domestic demand. In this Weekly we assess the outlook... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Feb.) & Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The combination of the payroll tax hike and rising gasoline prices was probably behind the unexpected drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to a 15-month low of 71.8 in... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
