China Economics Update Further reserve requirement cuts still likely The People’s Bank of China has this week conducted the most aggressive open market operations of the year, leading to questions over whether it is shifting away from its reliance on the required... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of QE3 The US Fed looks set to launch QE3 soon, but a third injection of the same medicine is unlikely to be anywhere near as effective as the first two in supporting the prices of equities or commodities... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes suggest QE3 is a done deal The minutes from the last FOMC meeting at the start of this month strongly suggest that the Fed will launch a third round of quantitative easing at the upcoming meeting in mid-September. While QE3... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Domestic resilience amid global slowdown Over the past few weeks, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand all reported GDP data that were better than the consensus expected, reflecting strong domestic demand helping to offset export weakness... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks abound Our baseline forecast for the US economy looks fairly benign, with GDP growth gradually picking up from 1.5% annualised in the second half of this year to 2.0% next year. However, we would stress that... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Dragged down by weaker global economy The next 12 months are shaping up to be the most challenging since the 2008-09 global financial crisis for Latin America. A combination of weaker external demand, falling commodity prices and tighter... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market rebound tests policymakers Market sentiment about China’s property policy has executed an abrupt U-turn. Early this year, speculation was mounting that the government would loosen its controls on the sector in response to the... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed a little, but our own measure of M3, the broadest aggregate, is still growing at an annual rate of 4.5%. 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising interest rate expectations misplaced Market expectations of higher interest rates over the next 12 months look misplaced. The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with much of Europe in recession and the US economy facing a fiscal... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uptick in incoming data not enough to sway the Fed Since the Fed signalled at the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago that it was poised to act, the incoming economic data have, somewhat ironically, suddenly started to improve. Despite the recent uptick... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why is investment not rebounding? Months after policy was loosened, investment growth has barely responded. State-directed investment is picking up but not by enough to offset the reluctance of real estate developers and the rest of... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug. 12) & Labour market (Jun./Jul. 12) The minutes of August’s MPC meeting supported our view that more policy stimulus is likely before long. Meanwhile, the labour market remains puzzlingly resilient, but we doubt that this can last with... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The acceleration in the monetary base is not feeding through to broader money growth as demand for credit, particularly from businesses, is weakening. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia set for weak recovery despite policy easing Asia’s strong rebound from the 2008-09 global financial crisis took many by surprise. Despite the policy easing now underway in Asia, the region’s recovery from the current global crisis is unlikely... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank in a difficult balancing act The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 150bp to 10.5% today. Monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in an effort to revive growth, even at the risk of stoking already-high... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
