UK Economics Focus Opportunities and challenges from the "grey pound" The number of people aged 65 and over is set to increase by more than 4.5m by 2030. While this group currently accounts for less than £1 in every £5 of total spending, this share might rise to £1 in... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s household borrowing figures suggested that, while mortgage lending continues to struggle, the recent signs of life evident in the consumer sector may be translating into a pick-up in... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer tone but no action The crisis in Cyprus, together with the continued deterioration in indicators of euro-zone economic activity, should lead the ECB to strike a more supportive tone at this month’s press conference. But... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Foreign enthusiasm for Japan starts to fade The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board which concludes next Thursday (4th April) will be the first under Haruhiko Kuroda’s leadership. Unfortunately, the markets’ expectations of the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch More QE unlikely this month, despite remit change The minutes of March’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting suggested that those against doing more QE will not have their minds changed easily. And the remit change in the Budget ended up being fairly... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Retail Sales (Feb.) & Unemployment (Mar.) February’s German retail sales data suggest that spending rose in Q1. But sales are still falling compared to a year earlier and with March’s unemployment data confirming that the labour market... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s still weak level of consumer confidence tallies with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that the consumer sector is still fundamentally quite fragile. And looking ahead, we... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in spending fuelled by drop in saving The gentle recovery in household spending continued at the end of last year. However, the fact that households had to save less in the fourth quarter in order to raise their spending suggested that... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch High expectations almost impossible to meet It is a near certainty that at least one of the two Bank of Japan Board meetings in April will result in a further loosening in monetary policy. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see both meetings... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar. 13) March’s fall in the euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) provides a further sign that the euro-zone economy had started to lose momentum even before the recent escalation of the crisis in... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March's sharp decline in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 59.7, from 68.0 in February, is probably a delayed reaction to higher gasoline prices, which were prevalent during... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New-look Hungarian MPC resists more aggressive policy easing The fact that Hungary’s new-look MPC did not lower interest rates by more than 25bps today underlines the extent to which policymakers are constrained by the threat of a sell-off in the financial... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's rate cut a cosmetic change Today’s cut in Turkey’s overnight lending rate is a cosmetic change, and doesn’t reflect an easing of policy. In fact, the central bank has tightened policy in recent weeks. And with domestic demand... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Positive wealth effects from equity gains still limited The latest Flow of Funds report, published today by the Bank of Japan, confirms that the surge in equity prices on the back of the “Abe trade” has boosted the value of household assets, but also that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rates to remain low for an extended period We suspect that the decision by the Colombian central bank to reduce interest rates by 50bps to 3.25% was an attempt to front-load rate cuts rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another rate cut in Vietnam, further loosening likely The central bank in Vietnam today announced the seventh reduction in interest rates in just over a year. The move comes in response to very weak growth and subdued price pressures. With the economy... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
