Precious Metals Update Gold and silver to end the year on the up The price of gold is vulnerable to one last dip if, as we anticipate, the Fed presses ahead with a first hike in US interest rates soon. We have reflected this risk in our end-Q3 forecast of $1,050... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia too soft on inflation? Bank Indonesia’s poor record in meeting its inflation target has led to claims that it is being too soft on inflation. We believe such claims are wrong, and continue to think inflation will drop back... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet have to change tack on rates While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the fourth meeting in row suggests that the chances of further rate cuts have faded further, we still... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dithering Fed still waiting for perfect conditions We are now assuming that, even if the rally in global stock markets continues, some Fed officials will still want to hold off on raising interest rates until October or even December. A September rate... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What does the market turmoil mean for monetary policy? The gyrations in equity and commodity markets have raised expectations that global monetary policy will remain looser for longer than previously expected, but we think that the fallout will actually... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s problems lie closer to home than China We are fairly relaxed about the impact of a slowdown in China on the euro-zone. Most importantly, this is because the concerns about the Chinese economy look overblown. And in any case, the direct... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More “good” deflation to boost consumer recovery Turbulence in financial markets once again overshadowed some positive economic developments on the domestic front last week. Indeed, Q2’s second estimate of GDP showed that the recovery in household... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets shift too far towards expecting low rates to last For many years we have argued that UK markets were pricing in too early and too fast a tightening of monetary policy. But now, markets, which currently expect the MPC to leave interest rates on hold... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will stock market upheaval deter the Fed from tightening? We doubt the recent plunge in global equity prices will have a major bearing on the FOMC’s decision next month. Nonetheless, it may provide an excuse for the Committee to hold fire. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Euro’s rise puts Draghi under pressure again The rise in the euro exchange rate has put the onus on the ECB to maintain and perhaps increase monetary policy support. We doubt that the Bank will announce any policy changes following its meeting... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Foreigners head for the exits The financial turmoil of the past month in Asia has seen foreign investors scramble for the exit. Net foreign outflows from the region’s equity markets have reached nearly US$10bn so far in August... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Little chance of a Hong Kong de-pegging Although there has been a surge of speculation in the wake of China’s exchange rate move that Hong Kong could abandon its US dollar peg, we expect the peg to remain in place well into the next decade. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth is not the beginning of a more substantial downturn. Nevertheless, growth is likely to remain sluggish. And the problems in... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) GDP growth in the Philippines rebounded in the second quarter after slipping to its slowest rate in over three years in Q1. Conditions in the domestic economy look healthy, and a recovery in exports... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish bond issuance restarts, but rate hikes a long way off Although Denmark’s central bank has started to unwind some of the special measures that it introduced earlier this year to cap upward pressure on the currency, we still think that the deposit rate is... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
