China Economics Update China is not declaring a “currency war” A second downward adjustment to the renminbi reference rate today suggests that policymakers are now more willing to give in to market forces than we had previously thought. That said, we still think... 12th August 2015 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Talk of major policy shift toward RMB devaluation overblown By setting a lower mid-point for the renminbi’s trading band the People’s Bank has sparked speculation that it is embarking on a competitive devaluation of the currency in order to shore up exports... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout built on fantasy forecasts While Greece appears finally to be on the verge of receiving a third bailout, the extremely optimisticeconomic & fiscal projections underlying the plan suggest that it might not last for very long. 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jun.) & Hungary CPI (Jul.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed in dollar terms in June, but only because imports dropped by more than exports. Moreover, the financing of the deficit remains a source of vulnerability... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Renewed slide in oil prices not (yet) a game-changer The declines in the cost of crude oil since May have revived concerns about global growth and deflation risks. However, the falls mainly reflect positive supply-side developments and are also small... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to highlight divergence in the region The raft of preliminary second quarter GDP data due to be released this week in Emerging Europe is likely to show that the recession in Russia deepened, but that growth in Central and South Eastern... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan rate hike adds to African tightening cycle The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike interest rates by another 150bp today was an effort to support the flagging currency. The hike is yet another example of Sub-Saharan Africa’s escalating... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s primaries put Scioli in the driving seat With most of the votes in Argentina’s primary elections now counted, it appears that Daniel Scioli, of the ruling left-wing Front for Victory coalition, is on course to win the Presidential elections... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed edging closer to first rate hike A September rate hike is looking more and more like a done deal, even though the incoming economic data have been decidedly mixed of late. 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still too cautious on productivity Once again, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised many by the extent of its downward revision to the inflation forecast in its latest Inflation Report and the Governor poured cold water on... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Mexican inflation in July to a new record low of 2.7% y/y brought further evidence that the continued depreciation of the peso isn’t fuelling price pressures. With inflation falling... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the Spanish economy keep its place in the sun? Spain is set to remain the fastest growing of the major euro-zone economies for the next few quarters. But while the economy’s fundamentals have improved, the recent impressive growth rates also rest... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan likely to ease policy in October While the Bank of Japan today decided to stick to its guns, the recent sharp slowdown in economic activity and the prospect of a prolonged period of near-zero inflation should soon convince... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at policy staying loose for longer The Czech MPC kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, but the Council dropped its strongest hint yet in the accompanying press release that extremely loose... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth set to recover further Global growth rebounded in the second quarter and the latest business surveys suggest that it has picked up further at the beginning of Q3. Growing fears of a hard landing in China have weighed on... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report (Aug.) The ‘Super Thursday’ releases from the MPC suggested that an interest rate rise is still not imminent. The Committee wants to be cautious and wait for price pressures to emerge before pressing the... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
