Japan Economics Update New inflation gauges do not alter the outlook for monetary policy The Bank of Japan has started to publish a wider set of inflation measures in its monthly report. With all of them showing inflation well below the 2% target, we think suggestions that this shift... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Activity weak enough to justify another rate cut The alternative economic indicators that the Reserve Bank of India is now putting more weight on to assess the health of the economy still point to weakness. They will convince policymakers, we think... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy being dragged down by investment slump The slump in oil prices has already pushed the Canadian economy into a mild recession and things could yet go from bad to worse. Falling energy investment will hit both production and jobs, which will... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to growth being markedly slower than the official figures show. That said, it supports the view that growth stabilised in Q2 and that policy support has recently... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) The minutes of July’s MPC meeting gave strong hints that at least a couple of members are on the brink of voting to raise Bank Rate. Undeniably, the probability of a 2015 rate rise has grown over the... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South African inflation came in at a below-consensus 4.7% y/y in June, but inflation remains on an upwards trend. While this surprise result will take some pressure off the Reserve Bank, we still... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in Australia's headline consumer price inflation in the second quarter will not trouble the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), given that it largely reflects a rebound in petrol prices. Instead... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Drought adds to Thailand’s economic headwinds A severe drought in Thailand is hurting its agricultural sector and adding to the country’s economic woes. Rising downside risks to growth will increase pressure on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek economy ever return to normal? Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch September lift-off looking increasingly like a done deal We don't anticipate any major changes from the Fed at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 29th July. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC ends easing cycle, pledges loose policy Having cut its two-week deposit rate by a slightly larger-than-expected 15bp to 1.35% earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that no further rate cuts were likely. But at the same time, the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June data mixed, but Q2 GDP growth around 2.8% After a strong May, economic activity was more mixed in June. Nevertheless, it was still solid enough to re-affirm our view that the economy rebounded robustly in the second quarter. Even after the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek elections won’t ensure passage of bailout Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
