China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The opening day of the National People’s Congress leaves us upbeat that the government will push ahead with reforms and make further progress in rebalancing the economy away from investment, even if... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for India’s financial markets? Despite the prospect of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), we forecast that the country’s stock market will end this year barely any higher than it is now. On a more... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan makes case for loosening to continue The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to cut its policy rates today was unscheduled but not entirely a surprise: we had argued that there was a significant chance of an inter-meeting cut following the... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: fears of riyal devaluation overdone We think fears that the plunge in oil prices since the middle of last year will force Saudi Arabia to ditch its dollar peg and devalue the riyal are overdone. The Kingdom has plenty of resources to... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s capital spending plans face hurdles The Finance Ministry’s plans outlined in the Budget to significantly ramp up capital expenditure are to be welcomed, but fully implementing them will be a tough challenge. Potential impediments... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s central bank hikes rates to stem hryvnia crisis The hike in Ukraine’s discount rate by 10.5% to 30% today is a desperate attempt by the National Bank to regain control of the currency, having botched its attempt to tighten capital controls over the... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New monetary framework a positive, but doesn’t alter big picture Although the new monetary policy framework agreed upon by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government is a positive step, it is also largely symbolic. The framework is unlikely to have much... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian rates still likely to be cut to 1.5% this year We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision not to follow last month’s rate cut to 2.25% with another reduction today is just a pause in a loosening cycle that will take rates down to 1.5... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to cope with commodity collapse The plunge in the prices of the key commodity exports of both Australia and New Zealand late last year will soon filter through into weaker domestic activity, resulting in GDP growth this year slowing... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 10 key calls on Australia and New Zealand Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in ourAustralia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients today), but in this note we highlight ten... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rate cut alone won't boost lending The People's Bank has cut benchmark rates in order to help some indebted firms cope with the rise in real borrowing costs that has resulted from lower inflation. But the central bank still appears to... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Outlook for metals brightening Metals prices have shown some of the largest gains in the past week, benefitting from some better news on the global economy including stronger manufacturing PMI surveys in China and the euro-zone... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where next for Indonesia’s current account? We see little prospect of an improvement in Indonesia’s current account over the next couple of years. This could leave the rupiah vulnerable when the Fed starts to tighten policy later this year... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed positions itself for a June rate hike In her congressional testimony last week, Chair Janet Yellen appeared to lay the groundwork for the Fed to begin raising rates in June. Yes, the exact timing is still data dependent. But assuming we... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
