RBA Watch Lower potential growth wouldn’t rule out rate cuts It looks as though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will break this year’s pattern of cutting interest rates at meetings that are followed by the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy by... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries remain vulnerable to tighter Fed policy Once the US FOMC has begun to raise its target for the federal funds rate, it is widely expected that subsequent increases will be very gradual, as the rate is only slowly returned to a more “normal”... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy to diverge sharply by the end of 2016 The uneven pace of growth in the developed world is likely to lead to a sharper divergence in monetary policy than most anticipate by the end of 2016. US rates look set to increase further than... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone monetary data point to a continued economic recovery, although they suggest that growth will not gather much more pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed closing in on lift-off, as economy enjoys Q2 rebound This week's FOMC meeting will be uneventful. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are based entirely on the incoming data, we wouldn't expect any heavy hints in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak growth hindering euro-zone’s fiscal progress Greece last week passed the necessary reforms to start negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout. But with the country back in recession, it will struggle to meet the creditors’ fiscal goals... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger GDP figures won’t rush the MPC The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Tuesday looks set to show that the economic recovery has re-gained some momentum. However, the recent strength of the survey data has not been borne out fully in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek deal brings sigh of relief Greece’s move towards a third bailout has brought relief to Central and South Eastern Europe where concerns about contagion were very real, particularly in the Balkans. While it is too early to say... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan-China trade agreements are not a big deal There is concern among some parts of Taiwan’s business community that a cooler stance toward China under the next government could hurt the economy. However, closer relations between China and Taiwan... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook for real pay continues to brighten Households are continuing to see substantial increases in their purchasing power. Annual growth in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) picked up from 2.7% in April to 2.8% in May, well above... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jul.) The continued decline in inflation in Mexico in the first half of this month should further dispel fears that a weaker currency will have any meaningful impact on the headline rate. With inflation... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa finally begins tightening cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked its key interest rate from 5.75% to 6.00% today, judging that the threat of elevated inflation outweighed the risk of choking off already weak growth. The... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, but hikes on horizon The statement accompanying today’s Turkish central bank decision, at which interest rates were lef tunchanged, made it clear that the MPC isn’t reading too much into June’s much sharper-than-expected... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
