UK Economics Update Fiscal tweaks not big enough to prompt MPC hike this year Despite the Chancellor’s decision to smooth the fiscal squeeze in yesterday’s Budget, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to continue to keep interest rates on hold until next year... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in Korea unlikely Despite the weak economy, the Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We think it will take a severe deterioration in the growth outlook to convince the BoK... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Get ready for interest rate cut(s) Facing a larger than previously expected fallout from the oil price shock and a still misfiring manufacturing sector, there is a very strong chance that the Bank of Canada will cut rates from 0.75% to... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 8.9% y/y last month probably seals the deal for another 50bp hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at this month’s COPOM meeting. Elsewhere, inflation in Chile... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down risks from Greece The statement accompanying today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which the policy interest rate was left unchanged, sounded relatively sanguine on the risks posed by the deepening crisis in Greece to the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (May) & Hungary CPI (Jun.) The slowdown in Turkish industrial production growth in May, to 2.4% y/y, appears to be a result of strikes in the automobile sector. And, overall, the data still suggest that the economy expanded at... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lower dollar won't prevent further RBA rate cuts Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the second month in a row today and did not provide a clear hint that more cuts lie ahead, we still... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy unlikely to rebound from oil slump The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey shows that not only is the fallout from the slump in oil prices still taking a heavy toll on the economy, but the pick-up in non-energy sectors... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Ringgit weakness to remain a constraint on policy in Malaysia The Malaysian ringgit weakened past its 1998-2005 peg level of 3.80 against the dollar today for the first time since the peg was scrapped. Today’s decline may have been triggered by concern over the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fast escape from oil slump unlikely With the fallout from the oil price slump still taking its toll on the economy and manufacturing hobbling along, growth prospects look only marginally better now than at the start of the year. For the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Greek crisis a sideshow for world economy The global economy is likely to expand at a decent pace in the second half ofthe year, despite escalating tensions in Greece and the recent gyrations in China’s equity market. Business surveys have... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget to leave economy still facing big fiscal squeeze As far as the UK is concerned, the main point to take from last week’s Greek developments wasthat there are still limited signs of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. So far, so not-too-badthen... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is there an end in sight to the export slowdown? Emerging Asia’s exports have continued to disappoint over recent months. The downturn can be explained partly by falling commodity prices and currency effects. However, weak global demand has also... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Bubbles, basket cases and rising stars The economic outlook for Emerging Asia over the next few years varies considerably from one country to the next. Years of loose monetary policy in the region’s wealthy economies have led to the... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Grexit matter for Japan? With trade and direct financial ties between Japan and Europe relatively weak, the main channel through which Greek exit from the euro-zone could affect Japan is a pick-up in safe haven flows. If that... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Unanimous for one more month There is probably a greater chance of Angela Merkel becoming Prime Minister of Greece than the MPC raising interest rates this month. And while a couple of MPC members look set to respond to the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
