UK Markets Chart Pack Rate hike could still come sooner than markets think Markets have revised their expectations for interest rates significantly, such that they now expect the first rise in Bank Rate to occur in Q1 next year, some four months earlier than they did at the... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Loan growth moderated in January, and a range of leading indicators suggest that borrowing will slow further in coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Egyptian inflation fell back in January and looks set to ease further over the coming months. Further interest rate cuts are likely this year, but we suspect that the CBE will wait until the effects... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Danish CPI (Jan. 15) January’s falls in Swiss and Danish CPI inflation into or further into negative territory highlight the need for central banks to do more to prevent their respective currencies appreciating further... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery set to be slow-going Following last year’s sharp downturn, economic growth in Latin America should improve this year and next. But the pace of the recovery will be slow-going and GDP growth will remain far weaker than... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the latest currency moves in Central Europe After a year of stability, Central Europe’s currency markets sprung back to life over the past month as the ECB unveiled a QE programme and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to scrap its exchange... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) Mexican inflation fell to a three-and-a-half year low of 3.1% in January and looks set to remain close to the central bank’s 3% target throughout 2015-16. As a result, monetary policy is likely to... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economic recovery maintain its pace? The latest news suggests that the economic recovery is getting back on track after a slowdown towards the end of last year. Indeed, we remain optimistic about the growth outlook. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Can educated women save Japan? Efforts to bring more women into Japan’s labour market have enjoyed success in recent years.However, it remains the case that relatively few educated women are in paid work. We estimatethat lifting... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a threat is Fed tightening to gold prices? If nothing else changes, earlier hikes in interest rates by the US central bank would be likely to undermine the prices of precious metals, notably gold and silver. The 2% fall in the gold price after... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) We keep trying to tell everyone that the US economy is enjoying a period of unusual strength, maybe now people will believe us. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 257,000 in January and the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Carney faces balancing act with Inflation Report Deflation will be the word on everyone’s lips at this week’s Inflation Report press conference. Mr Carney will need to emphasise that the Committee is alert to the risk that deflation becomes... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 7.1% last month was driven by a combination of higher food prices, caused by the continuing droughts, and increases in regulated prices as part of the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey caught in currency crosswinds The fall in the Turkish lira against the US dollar over the past couple of weeks has raised fresh concerns about the country’s relatively high burden of dollar-denominated debt. But at the same time... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will more of Asia's central banks join the loosening cycle? There has been a clear shift towards looser monetary policy around the world since late 2014, and several Asian central banks have been part of the trend. Any further moves over the coming months are... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
