US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) We are not overly concerned by the slowdown in the annual growth rate of our broad M3 money measure to a five-year low of 3.5% in February, particularly not when bank loans are still expanding at more... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA may try to talk the dollar down While the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates at 2.0% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 5th April, it may try to give activity and inflation a boost by attempting to... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s central bank makes long-awaited devaluation The Egyptian central bank’s decision to devalue the pound this month ended months of growing speculation that a move in the currency was on the cards. In the near term, this will bring some pain. The... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will financial stability concerns prevent Norges Bank rate cuts? The Norges Bank has clearly become more concerned about threats to financial stability, but we do not think that this will prevent it from cutting the policy rate to zero by the end of the year. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the decline in profits mean a recession is coming? The 11.5% decline in corporate profits last year, which included a 7.8% decline in the fourth quarter alone, doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is imminent. Admittedly, profits usually begin to... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Shanghai Discord likely to weaken the euro again Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech later today will, of course, be keenly watched for hints on the outlook for US interest rates. However, there have already been signs that the markets are reassessing... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka leaves rates on hold, but further tightening likely soon Despite mounting concerns over rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening currency, the central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) opted to keep its key policy interest rates unchanged at its meeting... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil interest rates? We expect the Central Bank of Brazil to shift its bias towards looser policy over the coming months, but both the timing and the size of any cuts in interest rates will be determined by what happens... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that December’s interest rate cut by the ECB had only a small effect. While the Bank has since increased its stimulus, we doubt that this will boost money... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Stage set for further modest loosening It's not a done deal yet, but the balance appears to be tipped towards the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deliver ing another interest rate cut in next week's policy meeting . This is due to a number of... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed can’t ignore pick-up in core inflation much longer It is becoming increasingly apparent that many Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which inflation will rise in the second half of the year. Fed officials expect core PCE inflation will... 28th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More than just red flag waving from the FPC soon? The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) had a lot on its plate at last week’s meeting, with concerns about the impact of a Brexit only adding to the long list of existing risks to financial stability... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What do tightening labour markets mean for monetary policy? Labour markets in all the major advanced economies have been tightening for several years, and in many cases they are now close to full employment. At face value this suggests that the world may be on... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed adopts cavalier attitude to inflation rebound The downward revision to the Fed’s interest rate projections at the March FOMC meeting, despite little change in the economic projections, has prompted plenty of speculation that its “reaction... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC bows to government pressure The Turkish central bank’s surprise decision to reduce its overnight lending rate by 25bp to 10.5% today was dressed up as a move to simplify the monetary setup, but it appears to be a result of... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan approaching the limits of conventional monetary policy Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) cut its discount rate by 12.5 basis points to 1.50% today against a backdrop of very weak growth and low inflationary pressures. Further cuts to the discount rate are... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
