Global Economics Update Reviewing the lessons from past devaluations Devaluations have generally had a more positive impact on growth in economies which have a lot of spare capacity, where monetary conditions have been excessively tight and where a debt write-off is... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why commodity investors shouldn’t fear the Fed The US central bank is edging towards a first interest rate hike, most likely in September. Thereafter, we expect rates to rise faster than the markets (and Fed officials themselves) generally... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global financial conditions loose despite prospect of Fed hikes Yesterday’s FOMC statement and interest rate projections suggest that the US Fed is still on track to begin raising rates in September. Nevertheless, broader monetary conditions should remain highly... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts likely in Indonesia before year-end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold at 7.50% against a backdrop of slowing growth, high inflation and a weakening currency. We doubt there will be any changes in interest rates... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening unlikely to trigger a re-run of 1994 EM crash Fed tightening will probably be more aggressive than the market expects, but we do not expect it to trigger a re-run of the 1994 crash in EM financial markets. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this year We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modest rise in MSP strengthens case for another rate cut The small rise in guaranteed prices for crops produced during the monsoon season that was announced by the government yesterday marks an important step away from populist policymaking of the past... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals a further rate cut this year We suspect that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank, from 1.25% to 1.00%, won’t be the last loosening of monetary policy this year. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB has more work to do in its fight against the franc The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflected the franc’s stabilisation at a slightly lower level. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for a September lift-off As Fed officials left their interest rate projections for this year unchanged, it appears that the FOMC is still on course for a September lift-off. The 0.63% median of those projections implies that... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC unlikely to follow the US Fed closely this time The conventional wisdom is that when the US Fed changes interest rates, the UK MPC usually follows suit soon after. However, the historical record contains several exceptions to this pattern. And as... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Data (Apr./May) The latest labour market figures contained further signs of a pick-up in nominal wage growth. If this continues without any recovery in productivity, then a rate rise could come back on the table this... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC hints at smaller rate cuts ahead The Russian central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 11.5%, at today’s MPC meeting, but struck a more cautious note on the near-term outlook for inflation. As a result, while we expect... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
