India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation dropped into negative territory in January to its lowest rate since June 2009. In particular, the sharp fall in core inflation adds to evidence elsewhere of increasing... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) While Japan’s economy has finally left the tax-related weakness behind, the increase in Q4 GDP fell short of expectations and supports our view that the Bank of Japan will announce more stimulus in... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cut in Bank Rate returns to policy toolkit With CPI inflation on the verge of turning negative, last week’s Inflation Report saw Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discuss his available policy options should deflation show signs of becoming... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s housing market recovery to continue Korea’s housing market is showing signs of recovery, supported by the fall in stocks of unsold homes, rising rents, low interest rates and supportive government policies. A stronger housing market... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Jan.) India’s trade deficit narrowed in January as the sharp fall in global oil prices continued to feed through to the import bill. The smaller deficit provides the central bank with further scope to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s lending data suggest that while a slightly more accommodative policy stance has continued to support bank lending, broader credit growth remains on a downward path. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Concerns about yen unlikely to prevent more BoJ easing We doubt that concerns about rising import costs caused by a renewed weakening of the yen will prevent the Bank of Japan from announcing more stimulus in April. Instead, we maintain our view that... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No further rate cuts in Chile, but more to come in Peru Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and, while we do not expect further monetary stimulus in Chile as its economy is finally showing signs of strengthening, we think... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that deflation is now on the horizon, but that it will be fairly short-lived. Indeed, the stronger medium-term inflation forecast was a warning to... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines unlikely to join Asian rate cutting cycle Despite the recent drop in inflation, the central bank in the Philippines is unlikely to join a number of other central banks in the region that have loosened monetary policy since the start of the... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to surprise markets by easing again in April The plunge in energy prices should provide a welcome fillip to economic activity, and thus strengthen price pressure in the medium term. But the more pressing concern is that lower inflation threatens... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
