Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The seemingly inexorable rise of Nigerian inflation – which reached a 28 month high of 9.2% y/y in June – will add to the pressure on the central bank to raise interes trates later this year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates before the end of the year With inflation still well above target, today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave its main policy rate on hold at 7.50% was no great surprise. While we think rates will stay on hold in the... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate below zero in June vindicated the Riksbank’s decision earlier this month to cut its policy rate further and extend its bond-buying programme. But we think... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun. 15) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate below zero in June vindicated the Riksbank’s decision earlier this month to cut its policy rate further and extend its bond-buying programme. But we think... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise in consumer price inflation was primarily the result of a sharp fall in food prices a year ago rather than any recent increase in inflation pressures. It should not put the Reserve Bank... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Weak shilling prompts rate hike Today’s decision to hike interest rates by 150bp reflects the Bank of Uganda’s concerns about currency weakness. But with export prices subdued and political risk rising, we expect that the shilling... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Long-term outlook still positive Kenya has been in the headlines for all the wrongreasons over the past few months, and its economy is struggling. But while the country faces realproblems, we still believe that the economy holds... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Could the BoJ delay the 2% inflation timeframe yet again? The slowdown in economic activity in Q2 has dented hopes of an imminent strengthening of price pressure. The Bank could simply push the timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target back yet again... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed lift-off won't be delayed by Greece or China Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday this week couldn't have been better timed for those wondering whether Greece's potential exit from the euro would... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Greek bailout would just delay the inevitable There appears to be a chance that Greece and its creditors will come to a last minute agreement on a new bailout which avoids an imminent Greek departure from the currency union. But there are many... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Osborne Identity: Pragmatist not ideologue Despite being unshackled from the constraints of the coalition, the Chancellor chose pragmatism over ideological fervour in last week’s Budget. As well as easing the pace at which borrowing is set to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation data from Mexico contain no signs that a weaker peso is fuelling price pressures. With inflation still below target, policymakers have room to keep interest rates low even if the Fed... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Credit growth remains strong by past standards, and there are some signs that households’ appetite for borrowing has strengthened. We therefore think that household and corporate debt will continue to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt & Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month, to 11.4% y/y, confirmed that May’s surprise jump was a one-off. And with the headline rate likely to fall further in July, we think interest rate cuts... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
