Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Feb.) A further sharp rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of February has tipped the balance towards another 50bp increase in the Selic interest rate at next month’s central bank meeting, rather... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam CPI (Feb.) Consumer price inflation in Vietnam slowed again in February, and looks set to remain very low for the coming year. With the economy still overwhelmingly dependent on exports for growth, another rate... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: case for interest rate cuts building Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but a slightly more dovish tone in the accompanying statement, combined with the announcement of budget cuts over the weekend... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Regional inflation heading in opposite directions Inflation across the emerging world has been heading in different directions in recent months. In Latin America and Emerging Europe it has risen, led by increases in regulated prices in Brazil and the... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy is not out of the woods yet India’s revised GDP data paint a far healthier picture of the economy over the past couple of years than had previously appeared the case. GDP growth for FY13/14 was revised up from 4.7% to 6.9%. In... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB highlights limits to its support The first ever publication of ECB minutes confirmed that support for the new QE programme was not unanimous, suggesting that its scale will remain limited. The account, together with the Bank’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Jan.) The release of January’s activity data for Russia was delayed by two hours today but when they finally arrived they brought further evidence that consumers are bearing the brunt of the economy’s... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s MPC meeting showed that the Committee is more divided about the next move in interest rates than the unanimous vote would suggest. The healthy labour market figures released... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Cautious Bank of Japan still set to ease again in late-April Governor Kuroda today expressed the usual confidence about Japan’s economic prospects and the likelihood of price pressures picking up. But with the recent economic data disappointing and inflation... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Aggressive rate cuts unlikely in Indonesia With inflation set to stay elevated until the end of the year and the current account deficit likely to remain a source of vulnerability, today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia is unlikely to signal the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia’s crisis to deepen but contagion to remain limited The deepening downturn in Russia will depress aggregate growth across Emerging Europe this year but the outlook for most countries will be shaped more by developments in the euro-zone than it will by... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack New evidence of PBOC intervention to support renminbi Data for January showed Chinese banks continuing to sell FX to the non-bank sector last month. This has a few implications. First, the fact that banks were net sellers despite a record trade surplus... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Household debt concerns to keep Korean rates on hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate on hold at 2.0% after the government softened its pressure for further loosening. Looking ahead, we think persistent concerns about high household... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Jan. 15) The unexpected rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in January will be welcomed by the Riksbank but with prices still falling on an annual basis, we think the central bank will need to cut the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Peru dropped to a five-year low in the fourth quarter of last year. A fiscal stimulus will start to bear fruit in early 2015, but weak data... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
