Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again? Although there is limited scope to reduce interest rates further, the hit from lower oil prices on the economy is taking a heavier toll than widely acknowledged. Without any offset from the non-energy... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to pick up as oil price effect fades EM inflation is set to accelerate in the months ahead as downward pressure from thefall in oil prices late last year unwinds. This will ease concerns about deflation in anumber of EMs, including China... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Ringgit weakness to deter policy loosening in Malaysia The Malaysian ringgit has been Emerging Asia’s worst-performing major currency over the pastyear. While a weak ringgit should bolster Malaysia’s exports, it also poses a threat to financialstability... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hawks ruffling feathers but rate hike still a way off Given the air of uncertainty hanging over Europe, it is perhaps surprising that markets haverecently brought forwards their expectations for the timing of the first hike in official interest ratesin... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data were consistent with continued economic recovery.But with the probability of a Greek default and Grexit building by the day, the riskof a full-blown banking crisis in the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation? We estimate that wages would have to rise by 3% or more to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Even if the unemployment rate drops further in the months ahead, we think that wage growth may... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Are negative policy rates here to stay? Until recently there was a lot of scepticism that central banks would be able to set policy rates below zero. But in practice, the introduction of negative policy rates by four European central banks... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC tones down dovish comments Having kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a less dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference. For now, we remain of the view... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek crisis casts fresh cloud over outlook The deepening crisis in Greece has been met with a muted reaction in the financial markets inEmerging Europe and there are few signs that it has had any impact on economic activity in theregion... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets right to expect slow monetary tightening The prevailing view in the markets that the MPC can raise interest rates extremely gradually over the coming years seems right to us. Granted, wage growth has begun to pick up and the Fed looks set to... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tackling unemployment requires structural reform South Africa’s official unemployment rate hit a ten year high of 26.4% in Q1 2015, hammering home the scale of the country’s jobs challenge. Indeed unemployment in the country is more widespread than... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market volatility won’t throw QE off track There is no sign that the ECB has begun to “front-load” its asset purchases ahead of the summer lull in liquidity, despite suggestions by officials that it would do so. But the Bank will nonetheless... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian policymakers unlikely to follow the Fed The decision by Colombia’s central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50% last night was not a surprise – but what was more notable was that, given the economy’s large current account deficit... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update On the relative valuation of US equities and bonds One reason why Fed tightening may not rattle the US stock market is that the price of equity is currently low compared to that of debt. Our forecast is that the S&P 500 will end next year at 2,200... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Further FX restrictions a worrying sign The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to further tighten restrictions on foreign exchange market will not succeed in reducing demand for dollars. Faced with weak export earnings and tumbling FX... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
