Canada Economics Weekly Economy likely to struggle for longer than others expect After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the economy appears to have lost considerably more momentum this quarter, with GDP growth likely to be no better than 1.0% annualised, below the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While February's headline inflation rate remained at 1.0%, the core inflation rate eased to 2.1%, from 2.2%. These figures by themselves won't sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dovish Fed cheers commodity markets Hints that the Fed will keep US interest rates low by past standards even when it does start to return them towards more normal levels took the steam out of the rally in the dollar and supported... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Does the Fed most fear a potential bond market rout? The downward revisions to the FOMC's interest rate projections last week suggest that Fed officials are caught in two minds between beginning to hike rates in June or September. We still think that a... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fed policy unlikely to have major impact on rupee The Indian rupee has taken Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in its stride, with the currency dropping only fractionally against the US dollar since then. Looking ahead, the economy is in much better shape to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2% The early results from this year’s spring wage negotiations confirm that the tight labour market has boosted wage pressure. However, this year’s overall increase in labour income will likely still... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank of Chile likely to bide its time Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3% last night but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle shift in tone from the central bank, which now seems to think that inflation is likely to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will QE provide a boost to Frankfurt office occupier demand? The ECB’s QE programme will be a modest boon for some financial firms. And it should help to sustain the recent rise in financial sector confidence. In turn, that should feed through into occupier... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy should be able to cope with Fed tightening Concerns about the global impact of tighter Fed policy are likely to resurface later this year, but we think these worries are exaggerated. Even if rates are hiked, US monetary policy will remain... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tightening still a near-term threat, but can be offset The gains in commodity prices after yesterday’s dovish statement could soon be more than reversed if the Fed presses ahead and raises rates earlier than the markets now expect, especially if the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the Fed’s new projections Downward revisions to FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate have triggered a significant rally in Treasuries and taken some heat out of the dollar. But our expectation is that the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norway’s central bank holds rates, but cuts still lie ahead The Norges Bank unexpectedly left its policy rate on hold at 1.25% today but with the economic situation set to deteriorate, we think that the Norges Bank will be forced to cut rates at its next... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB will have to act against the franc before long The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflects the slight softening of the franc over recent weeks. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency to... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia does not need to follow the Fed's lead The first rate hike in the US looks to be only a matter of months away. But local factors, not the actions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine the next moves by Asia's central banks. 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will have to act against the franc before long The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its deposit rate at -0.75% presumably reflects the slight softening of the franc over recent weeks. But we expect renewed upward pressure on the currency to... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed drops "patient" but also lowers rate projections Although the Fed dropped its pledge that it could be "patient" in beginning to normalise monetary policy, paving the way for a June lift-off, the substantial downgrades to the interest rate forecasts... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
