Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) Although July's annual core inflation rate nudged up to 2.4% from 2.3%, the Bank of Canada likely couldn't care less. With the economy in a mild recession and falling oil and other industrial... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A missed opportunity The monsoon session of parliament, which concluded last week, has ended up being one of the biggest disappointments of Prime Minister Modi’s tenure so far, with virtually no progress made on pushing... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still room for revision of rate expectations in EM bond market Local currency government bonds have been a port in the emerging market (EM) storm during the past year, as investors have revised down their expectations for policy rates. While they are now... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The very muted 0.1% m/m gains in both headline and core CPI in July will certainly give the Fed pause for thought in whether to raise interest rates or not at the next FOMC meeting in mid September... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dong devaluation not part of Asian currency war Although today’s decision by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to devalue the dong by a further 1% against the US dollar and widen the trading band was in part linked to China’s devaluation of the... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout approved, but implementation doubtful The German Parliament’s approval of the third Greek bailout should prompt payments allowing Greece to narrowly avoid default yet again. But Grexit risks have not disappeared and are likely to flare up... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the falls: where next for EM currencies? The most recent declines in emerging market currencies have been driven by renewed falls in global commodity prices, China’s ‘devaluation’ of the renminbi, and worries about the prospect of monetary... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of deflation still confined to euro-zone and Japan Fears of a period of widespread deflation look misplaced, in our view, despite the recent fall in oil prices and China’s devaluation. Domestic forces will continue to be the key drivers of inflation... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: chance of rate hikes growing A sharp fall in its currency, rising inflation and a widening current account deficit have increased the chance that Colombia’s central bank will tighten monetary conditions in the coming quarters... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to be supported by central banks’ buying In the last month, China has added a further 19 tonnes to its official holdings of gold. This supports our view that China’s gold accumulation will continue and that official purchases will be one of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC strikes hawkish note, unveils new policy plans The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its benchmark rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement struck a hawkish note in response to the latest fall in the lira. In addition, the Bank’s... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) The small rise in CPI inflation from 0% to 0.1% in July merely reflected the slightly earlier conclusion of summer discounting of clothing this year compared to last and so has little bearing on the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
