UK Economics Update Global risks keep rates on hold again Although the MPC kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today, it left its options open – saying that recent events had not altered its central view for the UK economy, while conceding an increase in... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs and Fed tightening revisited The outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting is finely balanced, but it’s possible that it could deliver the first increase in US interest rates since 2006. In this Focus we revisit research we’ve... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Emerging Europe Data Response The sharp pick-up in Turkish GDP growth in Q2, to 3.8% y/y, provides some rare good news for the economy. However, we think this is likely to be temporary and higher inflation and tighter monetary... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Headwinds to QQE are intensifying Economic activity continues to languish, and the tight labour market has failed to generate broad-based wage gains. With renewed falls in crude oil prices undermining the Bank’s attempts to lift... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Another step on the way down to rates of 2.0% The most important part of today’s policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not the third consecutive 0.25% cut in interest rates, to 2.75%, but the Bank’s growing acceptance that a... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada stands pat for now The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today was largely as expected given that the economy apparently returned to positive growth in June. But we still... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds of a September rate hike are 50-50 The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday, are close to 50-50. The cumulative improvement in the economy over the past few years means that it... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Aug.) The fall in Czech inflation in August, to 0.3% y/y, was driven largely by steeper falls in food and energy prices and, as a result, shouldn’t raise too many concerns about the risk of deflation... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Hungary CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Turkish industrial production in July, coming alongside the fall in August’s manufacturing PMI, reinforces our view that GDP growth is likely to weaken in the... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Favourable base effects will soon fade Inflation is likely to have edged down in August, due in large part to favourable base effects caused by the spike in food prices a year ago. But these effects are soon likely to fade, which will push... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about “Corbynomics”? If the polls are anything to go by, left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn will be elected as the next leader of the Labour Party on 12 th of September. This has prompted a heated debate over his economic... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Advanced economies looking resilient We expect developed economies to weather the fallout from China’s August “devaluation” and the subsequent weakness in world equity markets quite well. Activity in the emerging world has slowed further... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report is fairly mixed and can be used to make a case for or against a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. As far as we’re concerned, the September meeting is a 50-50 toss up... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
