UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug) There is almost nothing to choose between our own forecasts for 2015 and those ofthe IPF Consensus. But we believe that a strong recovery in productivity will keep inflation subdued and allow the MPC... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Major challenges await Singapore after the election Singapore is holding a general election on 11th September and there is little doubt that the People’s Action Party (PAP) will once again be returned to power. Nevertheless, the PAP will want to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How useful are the BoJ’s alternative inflation gauges? With falls in headline inflation raising questions about its policy approach, the Bank of Japan has recently been highlighting alternative price gauges that show inflation to be rising. These... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi paves way for more QE While the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key policy instruments unchanged today, changes to its bond purchase limits and President Mario Draghi’s dovish signals appeared to pave the way for an... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to cut rates next week We expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 0.50% at next week’s policy meeting and provide few indications that additional cuts will be needed this year. Nevertheless, we still think that a third... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resurgence in exports unlikely to last The UK economy fired on all cylinders in Q2, with investment and net trade both providing considerable support to GDP growth. However, exports look set for a relapse soon. 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Market turmoil to reinforce MPC’s dovish stance Last month’s MPC minutes and Inflation Report suggested that the Committee was in less of a hurry to raise rates than many had thought. And the recent market turmoil and commodity price falls are only... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Heading down to 2% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is all but guaranteed to cut interest rates by 0.25% for the third meeting in a row, from 3.00% to 2.75%, on Thursday 10th September. We wouldn’t completely rule... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cost of Nigerian FX restrictions becoming increasingly clear On the face of it, Nigeria’s restrictions on access to foreign currency have been quite successful at stabilising the naira and the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the adverse... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) Headline rate The rise in Turkish inflation, to 7.1% y/y last month, provided the first hard evidence that the latest fall in the lira has started to push up price pressures. We expect inflation to rise further... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank still has more work to do The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged suggested that it has been reassured by the recent run of better-than-expected activity and inflation data. But with... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish as commodity prices fall, data soften Having left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50% earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a relatively dovish note at the post-meeting press conference, reinforcing our view that monetary policy... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation dangers still lingering While the crisis in Greece appears to have receded at least temporarily, the euro-zone still faces serious challenges in the form of weak growth and persistent deflation risks. As the Chart below... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks really running out of ammunition? The recent panic in global markets has been reflected in a wave of commentary to the effect that monetary policy has lost its power. We disagree. Central banks’ track record on inflation in advanced... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver to end the year on the up The price of gold is vulnerable to one last dip if, as we anticipate, the Fed presses ahead with a first hike in US interest rates soon. We have reflected this risk in our end-Q3 forecast of $1,050... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
