Asia Economics Weekly Poor infrastructure to remain a drag on growth Poor infrastructure remains a major constraint on economic growth prospects across large parts of Emerging Asia. A couple of countries, namely the Philippines and Thailand, are likely to see a big... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar? The appreciation of the US dollar since the end of last year has prompted renewed concerns over the sustainability of currency pegs in the Gulf, but we think these fears are overdone. Oil prices are... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank left its key policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for the twelfth consecutive month, but with inflation still above target and the risks skewed to the upside, we expect... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much spare capacity is left? Recent revisions to the GDP data suggest that the output gap has all but closed. However, the main factor holding back inflation over the last two decades were entrenched deflation expectations rather... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, but easing in 2017 likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with growth likely to slow further and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut later this year. 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hold its course despite rising inflation The ECB will not announce any policy changes next week after last month’s pledge to buy at least €60bn of assets per month until the end of 2017. President Draghi is likely to restate the Governing... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Next Riksbank move will be to tighten monetary policy Today’s minutes confirmed that only half of the Riksbank’s Executive Board supported the extension of its QE programme. And with inflation surpassing expectations in December, there is little cause... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to stand pat until Trump’s plans become more clear The unexpected decline in monthly GDP in October, together with the moderation in the new measures of core CPI inflation, might have prompted the Bank of Canada to reconsider cutting interest rates at... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects Mexico’s central bank has sufficient ammunition to intervene on an intermittent basis in FX markets to counter sharp selloffs in the peso. But the bigger picture is that interest rate hikes will... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Polish MPC suggests monetary tightening is long way off Dovish comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference suggest that the MPC is as focused on growth as it is on inflation. We continue to think... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further drop in Brazilian inflation in December seals the deal for a larger cut in the Selic interest rate at today’s COPOM meeting (decision due 18.20 local time). A 75bp cut is possible, but we... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) A drop in food inflation pulled down headline consumer price inflation in December. We expect it to leap in January, but the increase is unlikely to be a major concern for policymakers. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest fall in the lira and what it means for Turkish rates On past form, the latest fall in the Turkish lira appears to be sufficiently large to trigger an interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. If the Council doesn’t act, that will only reinforce... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
