Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the recent slowdown in the pace of the jobs recovery was only temporary. However, we don’t think that this will prompt the MPC to hike rates soon. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to expect from EM markets when the Fed pushes the button We still think there is a good chance that US interest rates will be raised tomorrow. But whether “liftoff” is this week or later, emerging market assets and currencies are unlikely to go into... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for modest rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.00% last night, but the more hawkish accompanying statement pointed to rate hikes in the near future. As such, we are bringing... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing in Thailand can’t be ruled out yet The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.5% today, undoubtedly with an eye on the US Fed’s rate meeting this week. But with the economy still in deflation and struggling for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities to outperform US as monetary policies diverge Provided the panic over China subsides, we expect the yen to slide further and the Nikkei to surge as the Bank of Japan steps up the pace of its asset purchases, perhaps as soon as next month. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation set to rebound An increase in headline inflation is now “baked in the cake” for most economies. The effects of last year’s oil price slump are set to drop out of the annual comparison in the coming months and fears... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fed rate hikes take a backseat to low oil prices in the Gulf The Gulf’s commitment to dollar pegs mean that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported to the region, adding to the headwinds facing economic growth. But this is a secondary concern... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Case for more BoJ stimulus increasingly compelling While the Bank of Japan stuck to its course today, as expected, lacklustre economic growth, a marked lack of wage pressure and falling inflation expectations are likely to force the Board to announce... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Asia follow the Fed? The first rate hike in the US looks set to take place sooner rather than later. But local factors, not theactions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine the next moves by Asia’s central banks. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana hikes rates amid currency concerns The surprise 100bp rate hike, to 25.0%, by the Bank of Ghana today appears to have been aimed at shoring up the cedi, particularly in light of the US FOMC meeting later this week. We expect monetary... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are still low The rise in India’s current account deficit in Q2 was due in large part to seasonal patterns. The important point from a wider perspective is that the deficit remains small. This, combined with the... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation dropped sharply in August to its lowest rate since the series began. The WPI rate may not have as much of a bearing on policymaking as the CPI rate, but the fact that it has... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank has lost sight of the medium term The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) responded to the latest fall in headline inflation by cutting interest rates again over the weekend. The SBP’s aggressive series of rate cuts during the last year... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
