UK Economics Update Softer economic news further alleviates need for hike The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% this month would have been an easy one given the recent softening in both domestic and global economic news. While financial markets have... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to avoid bank liquidity crunch We think recent concerns that a withdrawal of government deposits from commercial banks will result in a liquidity crunch across the Gulf are overdone. Policymakers have plenty in their toolkit to... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy not falling off a cliff! Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s economy is turning a corner Korea’s domestic economy appears to be getting back on its feet following the negative shock caused by the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in mid-2015. With the outlook improving... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to announce more easing by end of the month While the Bank of Japan today provided few indications that additional stimulus is imminent, weretain our forecast that policymakers will step up the pace of easing by the end of the month. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) Today’s data on China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows eased last month, allowing the People’s Bank to reduce its currency intervention. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC dovish, but rate cuts don’t seem to be on the cards Having left the policy interest rate on hold at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish MPC sounded relatively cautious about the downside risks to the inflation outlook. The Council doesn’t seem to be in the... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) House prices rose by a substantial 1.5% m/m seasonally adjusted in August according to CoreLogic. Even accounting for the fact that early estimates of house price growth on this measure tend to get... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts will come back onto the RBA’s agenda before long By leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the fifth month in a row today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) demonstrated that the recent falls in equity prices have not increased its appetite... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary indicators consistent with global recovery Many have argued that China’s attempts to prevent its currency from weakening conflict with its efforts to keep domestic monetary conditions loose. But China’s monetary indicators still point to a... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Bungled policy response plunges economy into crisis The response of Nigerian policymakers to falling oil prices has only worsened their country’s economic slump. Africa’s largest economy is now on the cusp of a self-induced economic crisis. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to step up pace of easing this month With the economy very likely now back in recession, an increase in monetary stimulus looks all but inevitable. Policymakers could announce more easing as soon as this week, but our base case remains... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would negative interest rates hamper QQE? We do not share BoJ Board member Shirai’s view that the introduction of negative rates would hamper the ability of the Bank to purchase JGBs. However, Ms Shirai’s views have been close to those of the... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
