US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC dovish, Ukraine’s suggests further rate cuts coming Having left monetary policy unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, although it looks like the strength of the latest economic data prevented... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan cuts rates, further loosening unlikely A sharp slowdown in growth and very weak price pressures were the two key factors behind the decision of Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to cut interest rates by 12.5 basis points to 1.75% at its meeting... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate cut likely With recent activity data weak and inflation low, the consensus has swung around to our long-held view that the Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates again this year, with the upcoming meeting... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals more loosening to come The Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate today was accompanied by a suggestion that further interest rate cuts could follow. We think that another cut could come in Q2 next year. 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB holds rates, slashes growth forecasts A string of grim growth figures led South Africa’s MPC to pause its gradual tightening cycle today. We had expected a hike at this meeting, and still think that accelerating inflation and a... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about a weak rupiah? The Indonesian rupiah has fallen again over the past week, hitting a fresh 17-year low against the US dollar. The sharp drop in the currency, which is down by a cumulative 33% since the start of 2013... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off takes its toll on Russia and Turkey The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the hardest hit EM currencies this quarter and this has already started to feed through into the real economy. Inflation is on the rise (again)... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, Emefiele doubles down The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its key interest rate on hold today, while its embattled governor reiterated his support for controversial FX policies in the face of growing criticism. An overdue cut... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC slowly taking a more hawkish line The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates on hold today, but tweaks to its policy framework and to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is (slowly) taking a more hawkish... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus When will the BoJ have to start tapering its JGB purchases? We estimate that QQE can continue for at least another five years even if the Bank of Japan steps up the annual pace of expansion of the monetary base to ¥90 trillion in October. As such, the fate of... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
