Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly NAFTA in the firing line President Donald Trump sees the renegotiation of NAFTA as an opportunity to close the trade deficit with Mexico and return manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s possible that he could gain modest... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Era of global QE not over yet The widespread pick-up in activity and rebound in inflation in advanced economies during recent months has reduced the pressure for central banks to ease policy further. But only in the US do we... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q4’s growth deals another blow to project fear The solid 0.6% expansion in UK GDP in the fourth quarter of last year provided further evidence that the vote to leave the European Union has so far had little discernible adverse effect on the UK... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with steady economic growth. But they still point to inflation undershooting the ECB’s target. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch A less challenging trade-off The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) faces a less challenging trade-off between supporting the economy and controlling inflation. It will probably upgrade the growth projections in its Inflation Report... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ poised to scale back bond purchases The Bank of Japan appears to have reduced the number of short-term JGB auctions it conducts this month, paving the way for a reduction in the volume of purchases this year. However, an increase in the... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan on prolonged hold The Bank of Japan will probably extend the deadlines for some of its lending programmes by one year at the upcoming meeting. But having upgraded its assessment of the economy at the December meeting... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed in wait-and-see mode until details of fiscal stimulus emerge Following its rate hike at last December’s meeting, the Fed will remain in wait-and-see mode until it has more clarity on the magnitude, composition and timing of the anticipated fiscal stimulus. We... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates to remain at record lows this year The Hungarian MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged earlier today and the accompanying statement remained dovish in spite of a jump in inflation at the end of 2016. Looking ahead, with growth... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 4.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, was due largely to hikes in regulated fuel prices. But core inflation also rose further as the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s interest rate hike by the Turkish central bank was just large enough to buy support for the lira, but we think further hikes in the key policy rates will, ultimately, be needed in the coming... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Focus turns to policy tightening The sharp fall in the Turkish lira has forced the central bank to tinker with its monetary policy setup in an effort to shore up the currency, and we think hikes in key policy interest rates loom... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Has the Bank of Japan finished easing? With the recent improvement in the inflation outlook, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to ease further in 2017 but any speculation about policy tightening will prove premature. In fact, the Bank’s pledge... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada focused on US rather than domestic risks Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz surprised the markets last week with his admission that an interest rate cut was still “on the table” if one of the Bank’s downside risks became reality. The... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
