US Economics Update Dollar debt not the reason for the Fed's caution The latest US financial accounts show that the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates from near-zero is not because the central bank fears that it could trigger a debt crisis, either in the US or in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fooling itself if it thinks uncertainty will ever clear The more the Fed procrastinates, the more we get the feeling that officials are fooling themselves into thinking that, if they only just wait a little longer, all the uncertainty will clear up and... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fed inaction highlights need for more ECB stimulus The boost to activity and inflation from the euro’s weakening since last summer will soon begin to fade. The ECB might feel that it can wait for tighter monetary policy in the US to drag the euro... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China sneezes, Fed gets cold feet China is growing at a slower rate than a year ago and much slower than five years ago. But the widely-held view that growth has slumped in the past few months – which seems to have been a key factor... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Financial market implications of the Fed’s inertia The FOMC’s decision to leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged has triggered a rally in government bonds and weakness in the dollar, which in turn has weighed on equities in the... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should the Fed’s inaction mean for commodities? Commodity markets initially welcomed the US central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold yesterday, but the moves have been small. This makes sense, as rates are still likely to rise soon, and the... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is weak external demand holding back the recovery? The Bank of Japan has blamed weak exports for the recent sluggish performance of the economy, but domestic demand has hardly been vigorous either. We believe the Bank is pointing the finger at... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed delays rate hike yet again Despite raising its GDP growth and core inflation forecasts for this year and lowering its unemployment rate forecast for this year, the Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates amid Fed uncertainty The decision by the Egyptian central bank (CBE) to keep its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today was probably a close call and we suspect that policymakers were swayed from... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Praiseworthy reform prompts embarrassing own goal The creation of a Treasury Single Account for Nigeria’s federal government is a sensible step, but poor implementation has sparked an entirely avoidable liquidity freeze. While the Central Bank has... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policies to promote FDI are paying dividends Measures taken by the government to encourage foreign direct investment into India are showing signs of success. Net FDI inflows rose last quarter to their highest level as a share of GDP since Q4... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia rate cut likely by end of the year With the Fed possibly poised to hike interest rates later in the day, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise. Going forward, with inflation... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The disappointingly soft rebound in GDP in the second quarter supports our below consensus forecasts that the economy will grow by just 2.0% this year and that the RBNZ will cut interest rates from 2... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
