Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in January, to 4.7% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, is largely the result of hikes in regulated fuel prices. Nonetheless, core inflation also continued to rise as a... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to maintain dovish tone for now Recent economic data support our view that the Riksbank will raise interest rates this year. But given the recent appreciation of the krona, the Riksbank is likely to maintain a very dovish tone in... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep rates on hold throughout 2017 With the economy growing strongly but inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ not planning to raise rates until late 2019 While leaving interest rates on hold at 1.75% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up than down. But since we largely agree with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC signals that rate hikes not on the agenda The dovish tone of the Polish MPC’s post-meeting press conference this afternoon reinforces our view that the policy interest rate will be kept at its current historic low of 1.50% throughout 2017-18... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI brings loosening cycle to an end The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was in line with our non-consensus forecast and it signals the end of the loosening cycle. Looking ahead, with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rate cuts still on the cards despite hawkish statement The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept monetary policy unchanged today, but struck a hawkish note in its accompanying statement. However, we believe that the downward effects of a further strong... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to keep rates on prolonged hold The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% for its 14th straight meeting today. With the government prepared to do the heavy lifting to support the economy, the... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Gambling on growth We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is being too complacent in expecting GDP growth to be close to 3% over the next couple of years and underlying inflation to rise to 2.0%. So while the RBA... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but hikes likely soon The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept rates on hold at its meeting today, but against a backdrop of rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening currency, we think it is only a matter of... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Post-Brexit momentum maintained at the start of 2017 Following a strong end to 2016, the economy appears to have carried a decent amount of momentum over into 2017. Despite a slight fall in the Markit/CIPS all-sector PMI in January, it is still at a... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia recorded another quarter of disappointing growth in the final quarter of last year. With commodity prices likely to remain depressed and policymakers running out of scope to stimulate the... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
