Asia Chart Pack Philippines presidential election: runners and riders Political campaigning in the Philippines ahead of presidential elections due on 9 th May is now well underway. Grace Poe, an independent candidate and adopted daughter of Fernando Poe, a defeated... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political limbo poses growing risk to Spain The latest deal between two Spanish political parties does not guarantee the formation of a government and new elections may take place before long. While the economy has weathered the uncertainty... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Have central banks run out of ammunition? There is undoubtedly less scope for policy easing than there was a few years ago, but the charge that central banks are now powerless is, in our view, exaggerated. For a start, policymakers still have... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of employment gains will inevitably slow Our econometric model points to a more muted 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, with the growth rate of average hourly... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers step in to defend currencies Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia this month responded to the sharp falls in their currencies by hiking interest rates and stepping up intervention in foreign exchange markets. These moves appear to... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is another bubble inflating in Japan’s housing market? There has been some recent talk of froth returning to Japan’s housing market but prices, other than for condominiums, are not rising at a rapid rate. With debt levels also stable, there are no signs... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s criteria for further rate cuts haven’t been met…yet The turmoil in financial markets, the stagnation in employment growth and the recent rises in bank lending rates to businesses are unlikely to have spooked the Reserve Bank of Australia by enough to... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weakening economy suggests Norges Bank will act in March The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will negative JGB yields result in an operating loss for the BoJ? JGB yields would have to fall by another 40bp to wipe out the Bank of Japan’s profits, and they would have to remain that negative for many years to erode its capital base. However, that would be a... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central & South Eastern Europe remains an EM bright spot The latest data from Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) serve as a timely reminder that, despite widespread pessimism, some parts of the emerging world are faring well. Flash Q4 GDP estimates... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing still not in recession The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January, from 2.1%, illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) Consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, as a sharp 0.6% m/m jump in food prices offset the gasoline-related 0.8% m/m decline in transportation prices. Added to some... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle just starting The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) has delivered a surprise by hiking both its policy interest rates by 50bp. Against a backdrop of rapid credit growth, building price pressures and currency... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
