Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC dovish, but rate cuts don’t seem to be on the cards Having left the policy interest rate on hold at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish MPC sounded relatively cautious about the downside risks to the inflation outlook. The Council doesn’t seem to be in the... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) House prices rose by a substantial 1.5% m/m seasonally adjusted in August according to CoreLogic. Even accounting for the fact that early estimates of house price growth on this measure tend to get... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts will come back onto the RBA’s agenda before long By leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the fifth month in a row today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) demonstrated that the recent falls in equity prices have not increased its appetite... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary indicators consistent with global recovery Many have argued that China’s attempts to prevent its currency from weakening conflict with its efforts to keep domestic monetary conditions loose. But China’s monetary indicators still point to a... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Bungled policy response plunges economy into crisis The response of Nigerian policymakers to falling oil prices has only worsened their country’s economic slump. Africa’s largest economy is now on the cusp of a self-induced economic crisis. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to step up pace of easing this month With the economy very likely now back in recession, an increase in monetary stimulus looks all but inevitable. Policymakers could announce more easing as soon as this week, but our base case remains... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would negative interest rates hamper QQE? We do not share BoJ Board member Shirai’s view that the introduction of negative rates would hamper the ability of the Bank to purchase JGBs. However, Ms Shirai’s views have been close to those of the... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Is the consumer recovery running out of steam? The consumer outlook has dimmed slightly over the summer, suggesting that the economic recovery needs to become more broad-based if it is to gain momentum. The Q2 GDP breakdown showed that the... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to hold fire despite stronger labour market The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not seem too concerned by risks from China, while the recent pick-up in wage growth will worry the hawks on the Committee. Indeed, markets have probably gone... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC warns on inflation pressures Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Romanian MPC once again used the accompanying press conference to warn that looser fiscal policy could lead to stronger inflation pressures. But... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic interest rates on hold, but more hikes to come Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to leave its main interest rates on hold merely marks a pause for breath in its tightening cycle. We think that further rate rises will be needed before the... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry begins to see the bigger picture The Finance Ministry’s combative approach to some key issues, including the retrospective taxation of foreign companies and the potential composition of the proposed monetary policy committee, has... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates on hold, but more hikes to come Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to leave its main interest rates on hold merely marks apause for breath in its tightening cycle. We think that further rate rises will be needed before the... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s drop in inflation back below zero for the first time since January highlights that price pressures are very subdued and will add to pressure on the ECB to increase its policy support. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI front-loads policy loosening The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 50bp today, to 6.75%, went beyond what most had expected. But having stated that its attention will now turn to its medium-term... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
