Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards The hawkish statement by the Central Bank of Russia that accompanied today’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold has prompted us to revise up our end-year interest rate forecast (to 8.25%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Moroccan dirham to rise once central bank loosens its grip The spotlight in the region’s currency markets over the past couple of years has been on the threat of large devaluations but, as we explain in this Focus, the risks in Morocco appear to lie in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rate hikes confirm tightening of monetary stance The People’s Bank has raised the interest rate that it charges when providing funds in China’s repo market. This is the clearest evidence so far that monetary policy is being tightened and that... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Could housing be the weak link in 2017? Our economic forecasts point to a supportive backdrop for the housing market in 2017. Nevertheless, there are three potential risks facing the market. These are an interest rate shock, a shift in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a done deal Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting next week. But, despite the continued damage and uncertainty caused by... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rate rises a long way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will undoubtedly keep rates on hold at 1.75% at its meeting on Thursday 9 th February, but in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement we suspect it will revise up... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon The upwards revisions to the Czech National Bank’s inflation forecasts and the relatively hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforce our view that the Council’s koruna cap policy will end fairly... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC upbeat on growth but relaxed on inflation The first Bank of England “Super Thursday” of 2017 saw the MPC Minutes and Inflation Report strike a cautiously-optimistic tone. That said, while the economy appears to be coping with Brexit... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to be unchanged despite króna’s fall The króna has depreciated fairly sharply since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met. But given our expectation that it will rise again, we do not think the Bank will respond to recent currency... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode At the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, the Fed issued a near-identical statement to the one released in December, which strongly suggests it has no intention of raising interest rates again at... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates to fall to 1.0% in the second half of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th February, but its new forecasts to be published in the Statement on... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly NAFTA in the firing line President Donald Trump sees the renegotiation of NAFTA as an opportunity to close the trade deficit with Mexico and return manufacturing jobs to the US. It’s possible that he could gain modest... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Era of global QE not over yet The widespread pick-up in activity and rebound in inflation in advanced economies during recent months has reduced the pressure for central banks to ease policy further. But only in the US do we... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
