Global Markets Update People’s Bank of China now as important for markets as US Fed The March FOMC meeting is likely to conclude tomorrow with US interest rates left on hold but clear signals that hikes will resume soon. However, the timing will remain dependent both on future US... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) Today’s GDP figures suggest Sri Lanka’s economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2015. However, we would be wary of reading too much into the data, given the serious doubts that remain over the... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Dovish Bank of Japan to announce more easing next month The Bank of Japan did not announce additional monetary easing at today’s meeting, but dropped some strong hints that it believes more stimulus will eventually be needed. We now expect policymakers to... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 16) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Indian consumer price inflation dropped in February as food price pressures abated. However, the RBI still faces a difficult task in meeting its inflation targets for the next two years. 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation a step in the right direction The decision this morning by the Central Bank of Egypt to devalue the pound and move to a more flexible exchange rate regime is a positive step and should help to improve the country’s balance of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Wholesale price inflation held steady in February, but we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A rising tide lifts all boats A wide range of commodities benefited from improving sentiment towards the sector in the past week, even those – notably iron ore – where the underlying fundamentals remain distinctly bearish... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The weaker than expected 2,300 decline in employment in February and further uptick in the unemployment rate to a three-year high of 7.3% from 7.2%, provides more evidence that the economy is... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal policy won’t provide support for the recovery The two main events this week – the Budget and MPC decision – will highlight the divergence between monetary and fiscal policy stances. With Bank Rate likely to be held at 0.5%, marking seven full... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The adverse market reaction to the ECB’s bolder-than-expected package of policy measures unveiled on Thursday reflected concerns, partly prompted by comments from President Mario Draghi , that the... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds rates, but the tightening cycle has further to run The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% is unlikely to mark the end of the tightening cycle and we expect further rate hikes over the coming months. 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe set to shine while Russia continues to struggle We expect the economies of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) to perform well over 2016-17. Consumer spending looks set to stay strong, while export sectors will... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Japan write off its JGB holdings? At first glance, a write-off of the Bank of Japan’s huge JGB holdings offers a simple solution to the country’s debt problem. But it is not clear that such a drastic step would actually help... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia? The recent interest rate cut in New Zealand and the dovish comments by the RBNZ now mean it is easy to imagine a scenario where interest rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia. That would... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
