Latin America Economics Update New (non-consensus) forecasts for Brazil Inflation in Brazil has fallen more quickly than even we had anticipated and, as such, we have pencilled in additional cuts to interest rates this year. We now expect the Selic to fall to 9.00% by end... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities hit three-month high Chinese equities started the Year of the Chicken on a bright note, rising in February by the most in three months. Meanwhile, the PBOC has continued to tighten monetary conditions by pushing market... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Policy divergence set to resume, but probably not until June It seems increasingly likely that the much anticipated Trump fiscal stimulus will not take place until later this year. But economic growth and headline inflation have both picked up in the US and... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) caught most off guard but was in line with our expectations. The statement accompanying the decision was... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the export recovery last? A jump in export demand provided a boost to economic growth in the region’s most trade dependent economies last quarter, with Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore all expanding at their fastest pace in... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Feb.) Despite edging down in February, the NIER’s Economic Tendency Indicator still points to a surge in Swedish GDP growth. And with inflation expectations rising far above the Riksbank’s target, the Bank... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to continue falling sharply The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic interest rate by 75bp to 12.25% maintained an explicit easing bias but gave little away in terms of the future pace of... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, but easing cycle not over The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with the economy struggling for momentum and underlying price pressures benign, we think it will resume its easing cycle... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack A bad month for Indonesia A number of developments over the past month have cast a shadow over Indonesia’s prospects. The first was the publication of GDP figures for the final quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank won’t move on interest rates for a while longer We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy interest rate at 0.50% next week. Although core inflation and wage growth have slowed, activity and business confidence data have been more positive... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation gives Fed less wiggle room The rise in CPI inflation to a five-year high of 2.5% in January was principally due to a surge in gasoline prices, which appears to have been partly reversed in February. Nevertheless, with headline... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) Data to mid-February showed another big drop in Brazilian inflation which, coming alongside the recent strength of the real, paves the way for a large reduction in the Selic interest rate at tonight’s... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Steady bank lending still supporting global growth Credit growth has slowed in the US in recent months, but has edged higher in other advanced economies. As a result, we expect overall credit growth in advanced economies to continue at around 5% or so... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core inflation rises to highest rate since 2014 The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep rates on hold and signal the end of its loosening cycle in this month’s policy meeting took many by surprise. But subsequent data showing that core... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is QE about to go into reverse? While some policymakers have floated the idea that the Fed should begin to shrink its balance sheet soon, we suspect that it will proceed very slowly. And as other central banks will be adding to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
