India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The rise in Indian wholesale price inflation in February to its highest rate in over three years supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unfazed by the Fed Investors are now united in the belief that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, but we doubt that central banks in the emerging world will necessarily follow suit. Indeed, in several major... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the markets handle faster Fed tightening? The strong US Employment Report for February has all but sealed the deal for an interest rate rise at this week’s FOMC meeting. Risky asset markets seem relatively unfazed by the prospect, given how... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls The Icelandic króna has fallen after the final step in the lifting of capital controls. But with tourism set to grow strongly, we suspect that the króna will rise and put downward pressure on import... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Talk of policy tightening will prove premature The Bank of Japan may upgrade its near-term outlook for inflation at its meeting this week. With inflation picking up again, a rising number of analysts now expect the Bank to tighten policy in coming... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia and three big global uncertainties An easing in economic growth in China coupled with the downside risks to Australia posed by the potential policies of President Trump will mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t follow the US... 12th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Norges Bank respond to falling inflation? We think that the Norges Bank will leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. While inflation has fallen much more quickly than policymakers expected, accelerating house prices are a... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to accelerate pace of policy tightening After the Fed’s co-ordinated attempts to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, another 25 basis point hike is fully priced into... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB change course if growth stays strong? ECB President Mario Draghi last week reiterated the plan to buy assets throughout this year and keep interest rates at or below current levels for an extended period. But he also explained that... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC relaxed about RMB, signals monetary tightening In his annual outing before the press at the National People’s Congress today, People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made a strong case that policy support for the renminbi can be sustained in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian interest rates on hold, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold once again at 4.25% and, while the economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months, stubbornly above-target inflation means the next move in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Inflation rise won’t stop SNB fighting strong franc The Swiss National Bank will reiterate after its meeting on 16th March that it remains fully prepared to act to prevent any significant appreciation of the Swiss franc in the coming months. Although... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB committed to loose policy despite healthy growth The ECB today reiterated its commitment to buying assets throughout this year and keeping interest rates at current or lower levels for an extended period. While the Bank believes that downside risks... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Softer data to keep the hawks at bay It may not be long before one or two Monetary Policy Committee members vote for a rise in Bank Rate. But with signs that the economic data have taken a bit of a softer turn since February’s Inflation... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to be cut soon despite strong economy Ahead of the Central Bank of Iceland’s meeting next week, today’s data revealed that Icelandic GDP expanded by a strong 2.6% in Q4. Despite the strength of the economy, the recent appreciation of the... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
