Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank looks through inflation spike The decision by Egypt’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate on hold despite the rise in inflation to a 30-year high last month means that additional monetary tightening is no longer on the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds again, rates unlikely to change this year Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and we think that worries about inflation will prevent the central bank from loosening policy any further over the rest of the year too. 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Is the RBA’s optimism signal or spin? There is definitely a role for the Reserve Bank of Australia to manage expectations by signalling where it thinks the economy is heading. But by sounding more optimistic than its own forecasts, there... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank maintains dovishness for now While the Riksbank maintained a very dovish tone today, the strength of the Swedish economy and rising inflationary pressures mean that the Bank will soon have to change its stance. We expect the repo... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile pauses easing cycle, but more rate cuts to come The decision by Chile’s central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 3.25% came as a bit of a surprise, but it only marks a pause in the easing cycle and we expect the policy rate to fall to 2.50%... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen again stresses fiscal uncertainty Fed Chair Janet Yellen at least kept the possibility of a March rate hike alive in today’s Congressional testimony, but she offered no strong hints that such a move was actually coming and we still... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Shrinking spare capacity no reason for complacency Japan’s GDP expanded by 1.0% in 2016, which is a touch faster than the economy’s sustainable rate. We forecast a similar increase in 2017 so spare capacity should continue to decline. Helped by the... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Indian wholesale price inflation last month supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest rates much sooner than is generally... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder? The response from policy makers is one of the main reasons that the UK economy has so far weathered the Brexit vote well. And there are reasons to think that monetary and fiscal policy can continue to... 13th February 2017 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% was widely expected and, while the outlook for the economy has deteriorated, we still expect rising inflation to... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jan.) The further rise in Czech inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, reinforces our view that the koruna cap will be removed in the coming months. We see the MPC meeting on 4th May as the most likely date for... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more concerned about investor lending In February’s Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia drew particular attention to the recent pick up in mortgage lending to investors. Given its concerns, if investor lending... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA plots near-perfect projections The new forecasts published in February’s Statement of Monetary Policy show that the RBA is largely expecting Australia’s slow growth and low underlying inflation problems to be solved over the next... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat far from over The Bank of Japan’s preferred measure of underlying inflation fell to a fresh low in December. While the weaker exchange rate and the recovery in commodity prices should result in a rebound in coming... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB still do “whatever it takes”? Compared to 2012, when ECB President Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro” helped to bring the currency union back from the brink, the central bank’s ability to address euro... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
