Europe Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct. 15) Swiss CPI inflation held at a record low in October, increasing the likelihood that the SNB will intervene in foreign exchange markets before long to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc from... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to cope with oil shock Although the mild recession in the first half of this year has ended, the drag from falling business investment triggered by the slump in oil prices is far from over and growing imbalances in the... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark the end of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is monetary policy “just right”? Comments this week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley hint at a welcome thawing in their frosty relationship. What’s more, they support our view that the rate-cutting... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to remain low in Thailand for some time yet With the economy starting to show some tentative signs of recovery, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark theend of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The implications for China of deposit rate liberalisation When the PBOC cut benchmark interest rates late last month, it also removed the regulatory ceiling on banks’ deposit rates. This final step in liberalising interest rates came sooner than many had... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Currency crisis prompts sharp rate hike The Bank of Zambia’s decision to hike rates by 300bps was a predictable response to last month’s inflation surge. And with the currency likely to remain under pressure, further hikes remain possible. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) On the face of it, the fall in Turkish inflation last month to a weaker-than-expected 7.6% y/y looks encouraging. However, this masks the fact that core inflation rose to its highest rate in almost a... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Low inflation will soon prompt RBA to cut again Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) once again decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0%, the new line in the statement that "the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rates hikes likely in Colombia The decision by Colombia’s central bank to hike interest rates by more than expected was a move partly designed to clamp down on a recent surge in inflation but also to maintain its credibility in the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Sep.) The renewed rise in inflation excl. fresh food and energy in September would provide a reason for the Bank of Japan to leave policy settings unchanged later today. But the rebound in underlying... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still likely to delay first rate hike The Fed clearly wanted to signal last week that a rate hike in December was a realistic possibility but, on balance, we still anticipate that it will be delayed until early next year. It’s recently... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening wouldn’t let the ECB or BoJ off the hook Some commentators have suggested that the prospect of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and the resulting appreciation of the US dollar will significantly reduce the pressure on the ECB and BoJ to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
