Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish Polish MPC suggests that tightening is long way off The dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that, despite the recent rise in inflation, monetary policy will remain loose over the next couple of... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed signals an acceleration in the pace of tightening Last week Fed officials acted on a clearly preconceived plan to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which finishes on Wednesday 15th March. Buoyed by the post... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Feb.) Switzerland’s consumer prices data for February revealed that prices are finally rising again. But with the franc likely to strengthen this year, underlying price pressures are set to remain subdued. 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank’s bond purchases are not backdoor QE The recent rise in the Turkish central bank’s holdings of government debt doesn’t appear to be the backdoor effort to ease monetary policy that some fear. Even so, the concerns this has raised... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan have to start tightening soon? Japan’s economy has performed well recently and inflation is set to rise sharply soon. But the spike in inflation won’t last and, with inflation expectations no higher now than when the Bank of Japan... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA remains more optimistic than most The statement released after the Reserve Bank of Australia today left interest rates at 1.5% remained fairly balanced, but recent speeches have made it clear that the RBA doesn’t intend to cut... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed about to err with another rate hike? Fed officials appear to have embarked on a co-ordinated attempt to prepare markets for another interest rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting in mid-March. The improvement in the survey evidence... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in inflation expectations won’t upend ECB’s plans The recent strength of activity surveys, as well as increases in headline inflation and inflation expectations, are all good news for the ECB. But for now, we doubt that this will be enough to sway... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Spike in inflation nothing to worry about The sharp rise in headline inflation across Emerging Asia is unlikely to be the trigger for the region’s central banks to start tightening monetary policy. The increase is almost entirely due to an... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to treat growth pick-up with caution The recent run of positive data may lead the ECB to judge that downside risks to the economic outlook have receded when it meets next week. But core inflation has remained low despite the rise in the... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Malaysia to stay on hold for the rest of the year With the economy gaining momentum, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect BNM to keep interest rates steady for... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still taking wait and see approach Although core inflation is dangerously low and wage growth anaemic, the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy interest rate at 0.50% can be justified on the recent improvement in the activity... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes strike dovish tone The minutes of the Riksbank’s February meeting were fairly dovish. With board members concerned about the krona’s appreciation and political risks in the euro-zone, we think that the Bank will wait... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe may have to soften his stance later this year Recent comments by Governor Lowe have made it pretty clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t intend to cut interest rates further, including at its next policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th March... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
