Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation jumps, but no rush to tighten The jump in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month has shifted the focus onto policy tightening. But in most cases this has been a one-off rise from higher fuel inflation, and there is... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ keen for the dollar to weaken further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand used today’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% to emphasise once again that rates won’t be raised either this year or next. The financial markets are slowly... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s CPI figures have increased the chances of an earlier interest rate hike than markets have been expecting. Meanwhile, the fall in public borrowing was in line with the OBR’s new downwardly... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Departure of BoJ hawks suggests policy will remain loose The impending exit of two hawks from the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board suggests that calls for the Bank to scale back policy support will diminish. The Bank is likely to reduce the volume of its asset... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sterling weathers call for indy ref 2 In the week Article 50 received Royal Assent, sterling halted its latest decline despite renewed calls for a second Scottish independence referendum. While the referendum announcement coincided with a... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed more confident despite softer start to 2017 The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bp last week may initially seem a little hard to square with the apparent weakening in the economic data since the start of the year, with the Atlanta... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Key EM central banks set to loosen policy despite Fed hike The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates this week has created ripples rather than waves among EM central banks. Policymakers in China and Turkey followed by tightening policy too, but this was as... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC right to turn hawkish? While it came as no surprise that the US Federal Reserve pressed ahead and raised interest rates last week, markets were given a jolt by an unexpected split on the UK Monetary Policy Committee, with... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate setters give markets pause for thought Ahead of this month’s Fed and MPC interest rate setting meetings, the narrative had been one of markets preparing for a historic divergence in monetary policy between the US and UK. Sterling had been... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) According to our latest detailed estimates, China witnessed a net inflow of capital last month for the first time in almost three years. Tighter capital controls and seasonal factors helped drive this... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank cuts interest rates, signals further easing Chile’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, and used the accompanying statement to signal that further easing is likely over the coming months. This supports our non-consensus... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we now in a global tightening cycle? There is an increasingly common view that we are on the cusp of a global policy tightening cycle. However, while we no longer expect many central banks to loosen policy further, we expect interest... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
