Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates amid Fed uncertainty The decision by the Egyptian central bank (CBE) to keep its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today was probably a close call and we suspect that policymakers were swayed from... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Praiseworthy reform prompts embarrassing own goal The creation of a Treasury Single Account for Nigeria’s federal government is a sensible step, but poor implementation has sparked an entirely avoidable liquidity freeze. While the Central Bank has... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policies to promote FDI are paying dividends Measures taken by the government to encourage foreign direct investment into India are showing signs of success. Net FDI inflows rose last quarter to their highest level as a share of GDP since Q4... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia rate cut likely by end of the year With the Fed possibly poised to hike interest rates later in the day, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise. Going forward, with inflation... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The disappointingly soft rebound in GDP in the second quarter supports our below consensus forecasts that the economy will grow by just 2.0% this year and that the RBNZ will cut interest rates from 2... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold as franc weakens, but may yet cut again The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc and renewed increase in economic activity has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep policy on hold for the time being. But we think that renewed... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the recent slowdown in the pace of the jobs recovery was only temporary. However, we don’t think that this will prompt the MPC to hike rates soon. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to expect from EM markets when the Fed pushes the button We still think there is a good chance that US interest rates will be raised tomorrow. But whether “liftoff” is this week or later, emerging market assets and currencies are unlikely to go into... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for modest rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.00% last night, but the more hawkish accompanying statement pointed to rate hikes in the near future. As such, we are bringing... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing in Thailand can’t be ruled out yet The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.5% today, undoubtedly with an eye on the US Fed’s rate meeting this week. But with the economy still in deflation and struggling for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank likely to cut its policy rate next week The likelihood that inflation will soon fall, as well as signs that Norway’s economy has continued to slow in Q3, is likely to prompt the Norges Bank to loosen policy again next week. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities to outperform US as monetary policies diverge Provided the panic over China subsides, we expect the yen to slide further and the Nikkei to surge as the Bank of Japan steps up the pace of its asset purchases, perhaps as soon as next month. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation set to rebound An increase in headline inflation is now “baked in the cake” for most economies. The effects of last year’s oil price slump are set to drop out of the annual comparison in the coming months and fears... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
