Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, further hikes this year unlikely Sri Lanka’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, and the less hawkish tone of the statement suggests that its tightening cycle may now be at an end. We now expect rates to be left on hold... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI rate cut to be followed by prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations in cutting its repo rate by 25bp to 6.00% today. But it also acknowledged that inflation would soon be rising again. As such, further... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan giving up on its 2% inflation target? Comments today by BoJ Board Member Funo suggest that the Bank has given up on reaching its inflation target any time soon. Market expectations of policy tightening are likely to recede further as a... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode until December The Fed’s latest policy statement suggests that, barring any disruptive debt-ceiling stand-off, the FOMC is ready to announce it will begin reducing the size of its balance sheet at its September... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election won’t solve Malaysia’s institutional problems There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, will take advantage of the recent strength of the economy by calling an early general election. The weak state of the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia slows pace of easing, but significant rate cuts still likely The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate cuts to 25bp (from 50bp previously) suggests that policy might not be loosened as aggressively in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Could Abenomics survive the departure of PM Abe? Abenomics appeared to run out of momentum well before a recent slump in Prime Minister Abe’s popularity put his political future in doubt. In particular, his departure would matter little for... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is inflation really just 1.9%? Most people are right to believe that their inflation rate is not 1.9% as the official ABS data show. As different people spend different shares of their income on different items than the ABS assumes... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Sluggish GDP growth to keep hawks in a minority While the softer tone of recent economic data may not be enough to prevent another split on the Monetary Policy Committee at August’s meeting, it supports our view that the MPC is still a way away... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a foregone conclusion Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting next week. But the RBI has developed a taste for springing surprises recently... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC stands pat, but rate cuts likely later this year The tone of the Turkish MPC statement published at today’s meeting remained relatively hawkish, but we think that falling inflation is likely to prompt the Council to start loosening monetary policy... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Lower global inflation will not prevent policy “normalisation” The global picture for monetary policy has changed a little recently because inflation has been lower than expected in many countries. We now think the Fed is likely leave its policy rate on hold in... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Not ready to become hawkish The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% when it meets next Tuesday 1 st August, and we expect it to retain its fairly upbeat view on the outlook for the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
