Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected drop in Chilean inflation to a three-year low of 2.7% y/y, taking it further below the central bank’s 3% target, probably seals the deal for a 25bp interest rate cut (to 3.25%... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation pushing prices down Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged down in December as price discounting continued following demonetisation. However, further ahead, demonetisation could push inflation up by leading to... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies depreciating against US dollar Following a host of central bank meetings last month, most of the Swiss and Nordic currencies fell against the US dollar. While there were few major changes for bond yields, equities in most countries... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2017 In our first Watch of 2017, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming 12 months. The government’s demonetisation measures will lead to some weakness at the beginning of the year... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy fuels risks in Vietnam Q4 GDP figures for Vietnam, which are due to be published sometime over the next couple of weeks, are likely to show the economy is continuing to expand at a rapid rate. However, the risks facing the... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 We expect Japan’s economy to grow by 1% next year. Given how low potential growth is, this should be enough to drive a further decline in spare capacity and to add to price pressures. The Bank of... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stresses mid-17 exit from koruna cap still likely Despite mounting speculation that the Czech MPC would hint at removing the koruna cap earlier than previously suggested, today’s MPC press statement was surprisingly dovish. We remain of the view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone will be back in the spotlight in 2017 In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Border adjustment proposal is equal parts genius and crazy The switch to a so-called ‘border adjustment’ system of corporate tax, which was included in the House Republicans’ ‘Better Way’ proposals earlier this year, is beginning to draw more attention in the... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bond market sell-off overdone China is ending 2016 on a stronger footing economically but with growing strains in its financial markets. A slight tightening of monetary conditions has snowballed into a bond market sell-off, with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan to resume easing cycle next year Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%, but with growth likely to struggle over the coming year and inflationary pressures very weak, we think it will resume its... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery dependent on China The EM world is now growing at its fastest pace in nearly two years. According to our GDP tracker, EM GDP growth in October reached 3.5% y/y, which is the strongest since January 2015. China has been... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Discord among Riksbank board points to end of loosening While the Riksbank extended QE today, a number of the Executive Board dissented, suggesting that today’s announcement marks the beginning of the end for policy loosening in Sweden. Indeed, despite its... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on hold throughout 2017 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and with fiscal policy taking the lead in boosting growth but inflationary pressures benign, the BoT is likely to keep rates... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
