Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the next Chair shake up Fed policy? Whoever is leading the Fed next February, policy will be driven mostly by economic developments, which we think will prompt the FOMC to raise rates four times in 2018. But a new Chair, along with... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland nearing the end of its loosening cycle While the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left rates unchanged today, our expectation that the króna will appreciate in the coming months means we expect one more rate cut this year, in November. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Dollar’s decline to boost exports Just as the dollar’s earlier surge weighed on economic growth last year, the drop back in the exchange rate this year will provide a boost to growth over the next 12 months. The pick-up in global... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia easing cycle to be gradual Given the improving outlook for inflation in Indonesia, we think today’s 25 basis point cut in the main policy rate is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. We expect one further rate cut this... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Most EM central banks in easing mode Despite the focus in advanced economies on the timing of monetary policy tightening, the majority of EMs remain in easing mode. More EM central banks cut their policy interest rates than raised them... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank lending to remain weak The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25bp earlier this month, and subsequently called upon commercial banks to pass on the cut to borrowers. But the move is likely to have a negligible... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Synchronised recovery makes the ECB’s job easier The euro-zone’s economic growth is unusually synchronised across the region. Economies in the core continue to do well, while previously-struggling countries like Italy and Portugal are growing again... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank still divided over need for further easing Chile’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.50% for the third consecutive month and, while the accompanying statement gave no hints that rate cuts are being considered, we... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank’s MPC minutes show inflation concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) August policy meeting show that, despite voting to cut interest rates, most members remain cautious about the outlook for inflation. Indeed, with... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Slump in króna points to unchanged Icelandic rates At its last meeting in June, when it cut interest rates for the second time this year, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left the door open to further rate cuts. But given that the króna has slumped... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
