Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sees sustained rise in inflation as a distant prospect President Draghi explained today that the ECB saw the recent rise in inflation as transient and outlined some tough conditions for future policy normalisation which are unlikely to be met for a very... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna: when will cap be lifted and how far will CZK rise? We think it is most likely that the Czech MPC will remove the koruna ceiling at its meeting on 4th May. Following this, we are forecasting that the koruna will appreciate to 25.5/€ from 27/€ at... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep interest rates unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and with inflation set to rise later in the year and the currency likely to come under renewed downward pressure as the Fed continues... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian rates to stay on hold in 2017 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. With the economy now recovering and the ringgit vulnerable to turns in investor sentiment... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in wait-and-see mode Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly what policies the incoming Trump administration will pursue south of the border, we have every sympathy with the Bank of Canada’s decision to... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Corporate debt affordability remains extraordinarily high, as corporate profit margins have rebounded and borrowing costs have continued to decline. Firms have responded with higher corporate bond... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bond yields to climb further as ECB nears limits Portuguese government bonds rallied last week, but we doubt that this will continue. Sooner or later, we think that concerns about the sovereign credit rating and falling ECB asset purchases will push... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged up in y/y terms last month, but dropped in m/m terms as price discounting continued to take place following demonetisation. Nevertheless, further ahead... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar being buffeted by opposing forces With commodity prices and interest rate differentials pulling the Canadian dollar in different directions again this year, our baseline scenario is that it will remain broadly unchanged, increasing... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Political turbulence won’t knock economy off course Last week’s abortive army mutiny has focused attention on the political fragility of Côte d’Ivoire, which suffered a series of political and economic crises between 1993 and 2011. But we expect that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone wage growth set to take off? Wage growth was subdued in 2016, but the recent decline in the euro-zone unemployment rate to an 87-month low, taken in isolation, points to a strong pick-up from here. On the face of it, that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Poor infrastructure to remain a drag on growth Poor infrastructure remains a major constraint on economic growth prospects across large parts of Emerging Asia. A couple of countries, namely the Philippines and Thailand, are likely to see a big... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar? The appreciation of the US dollar since the end of last year has prompted renewed concerns over the sustainability of currency pegs in the Gulf, but we think these fears are overdone. Oil prices are... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank left its key policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for the twelfth consecutive month, but with inflation still above target and the risks skewed to the upside, we expect... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
