Global Economics Update Ten key economic calls for 2017 We expect growth in the US to pick up next year as a result of Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus, but in several other advanced economies it is likely to slow. Although headline inflation is set... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to stay at record lows through 2017 The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today suggests that the Council thinks the need for additional monetary easing has diminished. As a result, we have taken the very... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2017 The underlying momentum in the economy remains sluggish and circumstances aren’t likely to improve next year, mainly because of a worsening downturn in housing investment. We expect GDP growth to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017 As a result of the recent falls in the peso, Mexico’s headline inflation rate is on course to break through the top end of the central bank’s 2-4% target range next year. While this should prove to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Dec.) A huge rise in manufacturing confidence, to within touching distance of a record high, pushed the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator higher still in December. This calls into question the Riksbank’s... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today. As expected, it upgraded its assessment of the health of the economy, which points to policy remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Bank of Japan’s yield target has kept JGB prices anchored over recent weeks against the backdrop of a sell-off in bond markets overseas. The volume of the Bank’s bond purchases has also remained... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will have to step up the pace of tightening next year The lack of a sustained acceleration in wage growth suggests the Fed will be in no rush to hike rates again early next year. The stagnation in productivity, however, means that even the current level... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks While it continues to warn about growing housing imbalances and risky mortgage lending, the Bank of Canada still believes there is only a low probability of a major housing correction happening... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should inflation expectations concern the MPC? The MPC has not surprisingly emphasised the importance of inflation expectations in determining the degree to which it is prepared to tolerate an overshoot of the inflation target. After all, low... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle to be larger than most expect in 2017 The Russian central bank’s post-meeting press conference provided the firmest signs yet that the easing cycle will resume next year. Governor Nabiullina’s comment that Q2 was the most likely time for... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but hikes likely to resume in 2017 Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a tenth consecutive month last night, but with the risks to inflation firmly skewed to the upside, we expect policy tightening to resume... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan to leave policy rates unchanged At its last meeting, the Bank of Japan sounded the alarm over a decline in price pressures. However, the economy has continued to grow faster than potential and the recent sharp weakening of the yen... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t follow the Fed The unanimous decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed has resumed tightening... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tightening still consistent with strong commodity demand Yesterday’s US rate hike was widely anticipated, which probably explains the relatively muted responses in commodity markets. We expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of tightening in 2017, which... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
