Global Markets Update Will euro-zone peripheral bonds shrug off ECB tapering? Government bond yields have risen recently by more in Germany than in some “peripheral” countries of the euro-zone. This has happened even though the sell-off in bonds has been caused by concerns that... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates to fall further than most expect in Chile & Peru Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 3.75%, and we expect at least one further quarter point reduction this year. Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Chile left its policy... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly KORUS renegotiation could benefit Korea The announcement earlier in the week from the US government that it is formally seeking to renegotiate the Korea-US free trade pact (KORUS) is not a big threat to the Korean economy. The negotiations... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in June will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will others follow the Bank of Canada? The Bank of Canada may end up reversing the rate hike it made yesterday. But central banks elsewhere are likely to begin raising rates over the next year or two and are less likely to reverse course... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue hinting at 2018 taper We expect the ECB to renew its hints of future QE tapering at its forthcoming meeting, despite the modest tightening of financial market conditions that such hints have caused already. We still see... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: interest rates to fall further than most expect in 2018 We’ve argued for some time that the debate around monetary policy in Mexico would shift from tightening to loosening over the second half of this year. While the potential for market volatility in the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia interest rate likely to remain unchanged this year With inflation falling and growth rebounding, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect that BNM will keep interest... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to leave rates unchanged for some time The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today and there was little indication in the governor’s accompanying press conference that the central bank is in any hurry to adjust policy. We... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada gambles on rate hike The Bank of Canada’s decision to begin raising interest rates is a gamble that might have to be reversed before long. With the housing bubble already showing signs of bursting and household debt at... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could households withstand higher interest rates? Household debt has remained elevated in the euro-zone as a whole, but there has been significant deleveraging in the countries that needed it most. Given positive trends in the labour market, we... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam rate cut fuels financial risks Vietnam’s decision to cut interest rates today risks fuelling a further surge in credit growth, increasing the risk of a sharp rise in non-performing loans further down the line. We think the rate cut... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly External pressures mounting in Pakistan The “devaluation” of the Pakistani rupee earlier in the week is a reminder of the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency fall much... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
