China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s fall in German consumer price inflation back to negative territory and the continued weakness of the core rate will further raise the pressure on the ECB to do more to hit its inflation target... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the impact of a strong monsoon Early forecasts of a stronger-than-normal monsoon in India this year have raised hopes of a boost to GDP growth and a drop in inflation as agricultural production gets ramped up. But the early... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Mar.) While consumer spending and industrial production rebounded in March, the outlook for the second quarter is mixed. With price pressures moderating, we retain our forecast that the Bank of Japan will... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam Vietnam and Thailand are facing their worst drought in decades, with water levels in the Mekong River at their lowest since 1926. The drought is already having an impact on growth. A decline in... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The sharp fall in underlying inflation to 1.5% in the first quarter is a game-changer for the Reserve Bank of Australia and supports our long-held view that interest rates will fall from 2.0% now to 1... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal Although incoming data indicate that first-quarter GDP grew by as much as 2.8% annualised, we doubt this marks the beginning of an upturn in economic growth prospects. Economic growth in that quarter... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update When will pork price inflation peak? Pork price inflation in China surged in March, bringing echoes of 2007 and 2011, when spikes in pork prices caused headline consumer price inflation to jump above 6%. However, we think the upward... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil rally helps to lift pessimism over Russia Some of the gloom surrounding Russia’s economy seems to have lifted over the past month. The rise in oil prices has triggered a rally in local financial markets – the ruble is up by 12% against the... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained elevated at 4.3% y/y in March due to the electricity and water tariff hikes earlier in the year and, more recently, last month’s hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the core inflation rate in March, to 2.1% from 1.9%, was stronger than expected but appears mainly due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the economy takes... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The small fall in April’s euro-zone PMI suggests that the weakening of the region’s activity surveys this year has been due to more than just concerns about overseas demand, which have eased recently... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish inflation to continue easing (for now) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation since January has caught many (ourselves included) by surprise and we think the headline rate is likely to continue to fall over the rest of this year. That... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
