Africa Economics Update

Kenya: Inflation will add to economic headwinds in 2017

Kenyan inflation will remain above-target for the duration of 2017, prompting the CBK to hike its key policy rate from 10.00% to 10.50%. Elevated inflation and tighter policy will weigh on growth.

2nd June 2017 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Confidence (May)

Consumer sentiment rebounded in May and remains near the highest it has been since the sales tax hike. Meanwhile, household inflation expectations have started to recover again.

2nd June 2017 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)

May’s decline in euro-zone inflation to a five-month low does not change our view that the ECB will alter its forward guidance next week.

31st May 2017 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Small Business Confidence (May)

Small business confidence was little changed in May and points to continued gains in industrial output. But despite rising labour shortages, price pressures remain subdued.

31st May 2017 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Update

When will energy inflation peak?

We expect energy inflation to peak next quarter and then drop back, providing another challenge to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reach a 2% inflation target.

31st May 2017 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

OPEC deal renewed, but Saudi nods towards “exit strategy”

OPEC’s decision this month to roll over its oil output cuts displayed a rare sense of cohesion from the cartel, but there are signs that de-facto leader Saudi Arabia is seeking an eventual end to...

30th May 2017 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low

Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in...

30th May 2017 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

German & Spanish Flash CPI (May)

May’s declines in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate fell back from the ECB’s target of close to 2%. With core inflation subdued across the region, we doubt...

30th May 2017 · 1 min read

RBA Watch

Rate hikes remain off the agenda

While there is growing evidence that consumption growth has begun to falter, this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 1.5% when it meets on Tuesday...

30th May 2017 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The main inflation gauges all edged up in April and should climb further in coming months. But with the boost from higher energy prices set to fizzle out in the second half of the year, inflation will...

26th May 2017 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Politics takes centre stage (again)

The economic data from Latin America have continued to improve over the past month, but this has been overshadowed by developments on the political front. The scandal that has engulfed Brazil’s...

25th May 2017 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Will the ECB tighten prematurely again?

The ECB is edging towards ending asset purchases and raising interest rates. But there are good reasons to think that it won’t repeat the mistake that it made in 2011 of tightening policy too soon.

24th May 2017 · 1 min read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May)

Mexican inflation continued its upward trend in the first half of May, hitting an eight-year high of 6.2% y/y, but the recent stability of the peso means it probably doesn’t have much further to rise.

24th May 2017 · 1 min read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Apr.)

The continued fall of South African inflation – which dropped to 5.3% y/y in April – supports our view that the Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate later this year.

24th May 2017 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Household sector is starting to falter

There is growing evidence that the household sector in Australia is beginning to struggle as subdued income growth weighs on spending. The sharp slowdown in the growth of retail sales volumes in the...

24th May 2017 · 1 min read