Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening & EMs: what to watch for The likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this week has sparked fresh concerns about the knock-on impact on emerging markets. However, we think that most EMs are now well placed... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Indian consumer price inflation in November doesn’t put the RBI’s inflation target for January 2016 under threat, but it does highlight that the central bank cannot be certain of meeting... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in November and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further over the coming months and return to positive territory by Q1 2016. 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Four charts on what’s next for house price inflation A variety of forward-looking indicators suggests that house price inflation has well and truly peaked and that a sizeable slowdown lies ahead. House price inflation could even grind to a complete halt... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The upside surprise in today’s Tankan survey will support the Bank of Japan’s upbeat view on the economy and suggests that policymakers will leave the pace of asset purchases unchanged at least until... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed hike may trigger some temporary volatility in rates At this stage, it is almost universally expected that, after a seven-year period at near-zero, the Fed will raise interest rates this Wednesday. Like everybody else, we anticipate a 25 basis point... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Unconventional policy toolkit unlikely to be tested While we have long argued that the fallout from the oil shock would be disruptive and that hopes for an export revival were misplaced, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will need to resort to negative... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand crisis brings prospect of higher inflation and rate hikes The surprise removal of South Africa’s respected finance minister has caused investors to reassess their views of South Africa’s struggling economy. Talk of an emergency rate hike is probably overdone... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike in 2016 still likely despite slide in oil prices The unexpected slide in oil prices last week, to a six-year low of about $40pb, has left most forecasters once again pulling down their CPI inflation projections and has led some to speculate that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Inflation to pick up despite lower oil prices November’s consumer prices figures look likely to show that the UK’s brief period of negative inflation has now come to an end. What’s more, although oil prices have fallen further in December, we... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Input cost weakness means MPC is in no rush to hike The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold again today highlights how the UK is set to tread the middle path between a loosening ECB and a tightening US Fed. A further fall in oil prices and a... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish, Danish & Norwegian Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s consumer prices data showed a continued divergence between the subdued rates of inflation in Sweden and Denmark and stronger price pressures in Norway, reflecting the recent depreciation of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The renewed fall in France’s headline inflation rate in November highlights the absence of price pressures in the region’s second-largest economy. The weakness of the economy, underscored by the... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 11.1% y/y in November, alongside fresh fears over the fragile external position, is likely to add to policymaker’s concerns. For now, we expect the central... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Respite for the SNB, but fight against franc is not over With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Danish & Norwegian Consumer Prices (Nov. 15) November’s consumer prices data showed a continued divergence between the subdued rates of inflation in Sweden and Denmark and stronger price pressures in Norway, reflecting the recent depreciation of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
