Global Economics Update Has the threat of deflation disappeared? Fears of deflation have eased since the beginning of the year as oil prices have rebounded and global growth has stabilised. However, the appreciation of the euro and yen and continued weakness of... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) April’s fall in CPI inflation merely reflects erratic Easter effects unwinding and is unlikely to be the start of a renewed downward trend. But the big picture is that price pressures in the economy... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose sharply in April and returned to positive territory for the first time in 18 months. This reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) & Consumer Confidence (May) The retail sales and consumer confidence reports show that recent claims of the demise of the US consumer have been greatly exaggerated. Thanks to a massive 0.9% m/m gain in control sales in April and... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More survey evidence of bleak growth prospects The dangerous wildfires that broke out in Alberta earlier this month haven’t changed the dismal outlook for economic growth this year. As the increasing amount of survey evidence indicates, the much... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.75% and revise down its inflation forecasts is still causing waves, but what happens next largely depends on the evolution of... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes a gloomy note on Brexit risks In its latest Inflation Report, the MPC sounded a stark warning about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit, but nonetheless continued to indicate that, if the UK votes to stay in... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) Indian consumer price inflation rose above the Reserve Bank’s target for March 2017 last month, supporting our view that the scope for further loosening is very limited. 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation means rates will remain low in the Philippines With the economy growing at a decent pace but inflationary pressures under control, today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut on the way The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged today, but with the economy weak and inflation set to fall this year, we think that further loosening is on the way. 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but further tightening will be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation jumped to 10.3% y/y in April as the impact of March’s devaluation of the pound started to feed through into the wider economy. We expect inflation to rise further over the coming... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The recent rally in commodity prices pushed up factory gate prices and household energy costs last month. But broader price pressures remained relatively stable. 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Mexican inflation figure for April, of 2.5% y/y, down from 2.6% y/y in March, means that the MPC is unlikely to raise interest rates at the next few policy meetings. But with... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) If we are right in assuming that the Kyushu earthquake dampened sentiment in April, an improvement in coming months seems likely. 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
