Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland There is little sign that the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) expects to reduce interest rates further after today’s cut, but we think there is scope for a further appreciation of the króna to weigh on... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation stood in negative territory for a fifth consecutive month in May, but with subsidy cuts in the pipeline outright deflation is unlikely to last much longer. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in May will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stay low despite strong labour markets The average inflation rate in advanced economies is likely to be close to 2% this year and next as the world economy expands steadily and key commodity prices remain fairly stable. Despite weaker CPI... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) After rising unexpectedly in May, we think that CPI inflation is now not far away from its peak. Indeed, the effects of the lower pound already appear to be fading at the start of the production... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Underlying inflation was stronger than expected in May and domestic inflation should rise further from its 63-month high. As this will help to offset any disinflationary impact from a stronger krona... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Consumer revival underway The recovery in Japan’s economy since early last year has mostly been driven by a surge in exports, but Japanese consumers also seem to be joining the party. Consumer spending is on track for another... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp drop in Indian consumer price inflation in May is likely to raise further questions about the RBI’s reluctance to loosen policy. But we think the central bank’s unwillingness to cut rates is... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Political uncertainty clouds the outlook for policy With the General Election resulting in a hung parliament, there is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook for demand, Brexit and policy. As a result, the MPC is even more likely to sit firmly on its... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The collapse in Brazilian inflation to a fresh decade low of 3.6% y/y in May paves the way for further, albeit smaller, cuts in the Selic interest rate in the coming quarters. Despite the ongoing... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast The ECB revised its inflation forecast down this week, but we doubt that this has meaningfully changed the outlook for monetary policy. After all, the change was small, and largely reflected tweaks to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (May) Norwegian inflation resumed its decline in May, and we think that the fall has further to run. So we still forecast one interest rate cut by the Norges Bank later this year. 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation edged up last month on the back of a less rapid drop in food prices. But declines in non-food inflation and producer price inflation still point to an easing of broader price... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to keep policy loose to support inflation’s rise The Swiss National Bank will once again stress after its meeting on 15th June that it remains prepared to act to prevent any significant renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc. Granted, the recent... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to remain on hold for now Ahead of next week’s meeting, today’s soft GDP data are unlikely to concern the Central Bank of Iceland too much. The fact that last month’s interest rate cut has done little to stem the króna’s... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
