Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Brazil and Chile edged down last month and we expect it to continue its downward trend in both countries over the course of this year. 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Get used to low underlying inflation Our success in forecasting ahead of everyone else that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates below 2% is mainly because we realised that the legacy of a prolonged period of below... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to remain cautious ahead of referendum A policy change looks very unlikely this month. Not only will the MPC not want to rock the boat ahead of the EU referendum, but the economy still does not look strong enough to warrant a tightening of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picks up Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April to the highest since 2013 on the back of a further increase in pork prices. This may trigger concerns about a re-run of the pork-powered... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk? We doubt that the MPC will model separate ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ scenarios in its Inflation Report next week. But Brexit uncertainty will still affect its forecasts via its assumptions about the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain While the Budget has been badged as focusing on “jobs and growth”, Treasurer Scott Morrison was clearly thinking about his own job and the probable Federal election on 2nd July when he crafted it... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The sharper-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 6.6% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s current easing cycle has further to run. However, the fall in the headline... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenya Consumer Prices (Apr.) While inflation is picking up in most of Africa, April’s CPI data showed that price pressures are weakening in Kenya. We expect that this will allow the Central Bank of Kenya to cut rates by 50bp... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The euro-zone’s new earlier (“preliminary flash”) estimate of GDP confirmed the message from country data that the economy regained some pace in Q1 after the slowdown in H2 last year. But growth is... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries continue adjustment to cheap oil Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to overhaul its economy have grabbed the headlines in recent days, but the past month has seen a number of other Gulf countries announce further measures to deal with... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
