Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Respite for the SNB, but fight against franc is not over With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The bigger-than-expected drop in Mexican inflation in November underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. Against this backdrop, although it will be a close call, we are sticking with our... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight fall in Saudi inflation in November, to 2.3% y/y, reinforces our view that the backdrop of weak global commodity prices and slowing growth should keep price pressures subdued over the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to a 12-year high of 10.5% y/y, was driven in large part by a jump in food inflation. While this pick-up should be temporary, given that it... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five reasons not to panic about Fed “lift-off” We do not think that higher US interest rates will derail the global recovery next year. The Fed is only likely to tighten policy if the economy continues to do well. Other major central banks will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Nov.) The much weaker-than-expected rise in Czech consumer prices last month, of just 0.1% y/y, is unlikely to raise fresh concerns about deflation. But even so, it may tip the balance on the MPC in favour... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Today's data is consistent with our view that domestic price pressures are on the rise and that inflation is set to rebound going into next year. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation is coming Although we expect GDP growth to be a moderate 2.5% next year, the big surprise will be how quickly inflation rebounds. With domestic price pressures mounting and this year’s deflationary shocks from... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian food inflation set to ease…but not just yet The various factors pushing up food inflation in Brazil should start to fade by Q2 2016 and, with the boost from this year’s regulated price hikes set to ease too, headline inflation is likely to... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) The pick-up in Turkish industrial production growth in October, coming alongside an uptick in the latest business surveys, suggests that the economy continued to perform strongly in Q4. Elsewhere... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Public sector pay rise to pose another inflation risk Inflation is likely to have accelerated in November, as last year’s slump in global oil prices begins to drop out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, the Pay Commission’s recommendation for a... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Broad price pressures set to rise Despite widespread concerns about deflation, consumer price inflation has remained within a narrow (positive) range over the course of this year. With credit growth rebounding and wage growth... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) & IMACEC (Oct.) The further fall in Chilean inflation in November is an encouraging sign that price pressures in the economy are easing. While this reduces the likelihood of the central bank hiking interest rates... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes tied to pace of inflation rebound Last week Chair Janet Yellen all but confirmed that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates from near-zero at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which ends on 16 th December. Any final doubts should have... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
