Europe Economics Update ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect The ECB removed its reference to possible interest rate cuts today, judging that the threat of deflation has passed. But it is still far from convinced that inflation is on a sustained path towards... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation rose further above target in May and, while we expect another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate later this month, both inflation and interest rates are probably... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation close to bottoming out Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in May due in large part to another drop in food inflation, and we have nudged down our full-year inflation forecast in response to the weakness in the... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The drop in Egyptian inflation in May supports our view that last month’s surprise interest rate hike will be a one-off. That said, rate cuts are unlikely to come on to the agenda until the turn of... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board will have to lower inflation forecasts yet again The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming meeting. And with inflation set to fall short of its forecasts for the current fiscal year, there is little... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Yellen may set out balance sheet plans as early as next week We expect the Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates for the third time in seven months at the FOMC meeting that concludes on 14th June. There is also a good chance that it announces formal... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports Net trade probably contributed little to euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. The monthly goods export and import values data show a decline in the goods trade... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI unmoved by weakness of GDP and inflation data The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep policy unchanged today despite the weakness of the latest inflation and GDP data. However, the less hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian headline inflation was unchanged in May, but the fall in core inflation to below the central bank’s target supports our view that the policy interest rate will be lowered again, from 9.25% to... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic recovery levelling off Turkish GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the recovery levelled off in the first quarter at around 3.5% y/y. But there are signs of a healthy rebalancing of the drivers of growth. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) Despite the weakness in May’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor, growth in consumer spending on retail goods still looks set to rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, the squeeze on households’ real incomes is likely to... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will wage growth strengthen again? We expect the expansion in the labour force to slow in coming years which suggests that wage growth should soon start picking up again. However, the shift to flexible employment forms, globalisation... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA willing to ignore the weak economy Even though the economy may have contracted in the first quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at 1.5% today and retained its optimistic view on the economic outlook. We suspect... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Non-food inflation close to a peak We think headline inflation will have risen in May to a four-month high, driven by a further recovery in food price inflation. But looking ahead, CPI inflation is unlikely to rise much further this... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines and Taiwan Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Philippines inflation from 3.4% y/y in April to 3.1% y/y in May adds weight to our view that it is now past its peak. The modest decline was a touch lower than our forecast of 3.2%... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Following an unusually weak reading in March, the rebound in wage growth in April came as no surprise. But the bigger picture is that labour cash earnings are not growing fast enough to create... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
