Latin America Economics Update Brazil: notes from the ground Concerns about the deepening political crisis understandably dominated our conversations during a trip to Brazil this week, with a growing number of local market participants now warning of complete... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s consumer prices release showed the economy’s movement away from deflation resumed after stalling in February. 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis Kenya’s banking sector is stronger and more resilient than recent headlines might imply. The failure of a few small banks poses little risk to the sector as a whole. Indeed, as we explain in this... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The drop in Indian consumer price inflation in March is likely to fuel talk of more interest rate cuts, but we think that the scope for further loosening still looks very limited. 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp acceleration of Nigerian inflation is yet another sign that the country’s controversial currency and price control policies have failed. We expect that inflation will continue rising... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 9.0% y/y in March, but we think the inflation figures are yet to fully capture the impact of the devaluation of the pound in the same month. Indeed, we expect... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Inflation remained elevated by recent standards last month. But this is arguably welcome given previous concerns over deflation risks. It also shouldn't prevent further monetary easing given that... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation in March, to 9.4% y/y from 10.4% y/y in February, could prompt COPOM to take a less hawkish stance. But with inflation still likely to remain well above target... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears ECB officials appear to be trying to strike a balance between holding the door open to further policy action and yet stressing the limitations of monetary policy in order to pressure governments into... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Hungary CPI (Mar.) The sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish industrial production in February provides some evidence that local firms are benefiting from a weaker lira. Elsewhere, the decline in Hungary’s inflation... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing The government has tried to talk down the yen down over last week as the currency has climbed to fresh highs against the dollar. While we still consider intervention in the currency markets unlikely... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in consumer confidence in March may prove short-lived as stock markets sold off again at the start of April. 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar crucial when domestic demand is slowing The Reserve Bank of Australia should be applauded for resuming its attempts to talk down the dollar as the evolution of the currency will have a crucial influence on the outlook for both economic... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of a growing inflation problem in Colombia Colombian inflation hit a 15-year high of 8.0% y/y in March – one of the highest rates among major EMs – and, while most of the rise has been due to temporary factors that should start to fade in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican inflation last month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.9% y/y in February, confirms that overall price pressures in the economy remain in check. But the recent steady rise in core inflation... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages The recent weakness of wage growth over the past few months is partly explained by a deterioration in the quality of jobs being created, which is also reflected in a surge in low-skilled labour force... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
