Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Change in Riksbank target unlikely to shift policy yet The Riksbank has stated that its new inflation tolerance band will have no effect on policy. But with some Board members growing increasingly concerned about the effects of ultra-loose monetary policy... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The sharp rise in CPI inflation in April mainly reflected a number of factors that won’t be repeated and we think that this brought inflation close to its eventual peak. 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The return of Goldilocks Japan’s economy probably recorded the fifth straight quarter of growth in Q1, the longest streak since 2005. The unemployment rate is at multi-year lows and corporate profit margins at record highs... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure In the minutes of its latest meeting, the MPC commented that if the economy evolves in line with its forecast, rate hikes would be justified before markets currently expect. But judging by the market... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) The weakness in core CPI inflation, which dropped below 2% in April for the first time since October 2015, will give Fed officials some pause for thought. But with the unemployment rate at a decade... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & IP (Mar.) April’s sharp fall in consumer price inflation makes the rate hike we’ve been arguing would occur before the end of the year seem less likely. But we suspect the drop in inflation will be reversed... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Back to business for the ECB? The election of Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president has removed a big risk to the euro-zone economic outlook. This could allow the ECB to stop worrying about political risks and to concentrate... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank loosens while Norges Bank stands pat In the past month, central bank meetings have highlighted contrasts in the responses of policymakers towards inflation. In Sweden, inflation has been on an upward trend recently and is close to the... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank likely to bring more surprises for markets In a recent Quick Take audio recording (available here), we discussed why the Central Bank of Russia had caught the markets (but not us) off guard at its last two meetings and why interest rates are... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q1), Consumer Prices (Apr.) The first estimate of German Q1 GDP showed that the economy got off to a fairly strong start to the year. But April’s inflation data confirmed that, ignoring Easter timing effects, underlying price... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation really rising? There is a widespread view that the world is in a period of “reflation” in which both economic activity and inflation are picking up. But there is little or no evidence of a sustained increase in... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect May’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee is in no hurry to raise interest rates. But it also lent some support to our view that it will begin to tighten... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rate cut on the cards Following the sharp drop in the Icelandic króna after the lifting of capital controls in March, we pushed back our forecast for an Icelandic interest rate cut from May to August. But since the... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp divergence in Swiss and Swedish inflation in April supports our views that the Swiss National Bank will need to keep monetary policy loose for a long time to come but that Sweden’s Riksbank... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp decline in Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation has paused over the past three months, but it should soon resume. We think that it will fall to 1.0% later in the year, and remain well below the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation last month, to 31.5% y/y, was driven entirely by stronger food price pressures. We think inflation is now close to a peak and today’s figures are unlikely to... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
