Global Economics Update A selection of our key calls for 2016 and beyond Advanced economies are likely to continue their steady recovery during the coming year or two, albeit with the euro-zone and Japan still lagging well behind the US and UK. Tighter labour market... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stronger end to the year One implication of the US Fed’s decision to raise interest rates is that its concerns about China have receded. Certainly, the financial market turmoil that spilled over from China to the rest of the... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates early next year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals rate cuts next year The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) While the headline manufacturing PMI was little changed in December, the moderation in the output component suggests that the recovery has lost some momentum. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The continued decline in energy prices is still just about keeping a lid on headline CPI inflation, but base effects will drive it up sharply over the next few months and, more importantly, there are... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to rebound despite latest drop in oil prices Notwithstanding the renewed slump in oil prices, headline inflation is set to rise sharply in most advanced economies as last year’s much larger falls in energy costs drop out of the annual comparison... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The latest consumer prices figures confirmed that the UK’s brief flirt with deflation came to an end in November. But price pressures look set to remain subdued for a long while yet. Accordingly, the... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa battered by self-induced crisis A recent series of unexpected cabinet reshuffles – in which South Africa had three finance ministers in four days – has dented the political and economic credibility of President Jacob Zuma. The rand... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
