Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada less optimistic on economy Despite a serious downgrade to its views on second quarter economic activity, the Bank of Canada opted to hold interest rates at 0.50% today and to remain neutral on the rate outlook, clinging to its... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down last month, but it still remained elevated due to the energy and water tariff hikes earlier in the year, as well as the recent hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack PM Modi's first two years end on a high note Two years on from his inauguration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arguably just enjoyed his most successful month in office. For a start, PM Modi's BJP secured two important legislative victories... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility The Central Bank of Nigeria finally admitted at its MPC meeting today that its inflexible “strong naira” policy has failed. The move towards a more flexible exchange rate system is a positive step. We... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (May) The fact that Mexican inflation in the first half of this month came in at a weaker-than-expected 2.5% y/y eases some of the pressure on the MPC to tighten monetary policy next month. But if the peso... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus While we have consistently been among the most bearish forecasters of EMs over the past 4-5 years, the consensus has moved a long way in our direction over the past 12 months. Over the next year we... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. 21st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The rise in the core inflation rate in April, to 2.2% from 2.1%, was slightly stronger than expected but still appears due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 9.6% y/y, from 9.3% y/y over April as a whole, was disappointing given that it followed declines in the previous three months. Today... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today held its deposit and lending rates at 6.5% and 8.0%,respectively, for the third straight month. However, we think it is only a matter of time before it... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia opens door to further easing Malaysia and Indonesia both left their main policy rates on hold at scheduled meetings today. But while Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) gave little sign that it was about to shift monetary policy... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Today’s Q1 GDP data for the Philippines showed that Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s president elect, will be handed an economy that is in very good health. The foundations are in place for growth to... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Ind. Prod (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m increase in consumer prices was the biggest gain since February 2013 and reflects primarily a strong rebound in energy prices. More generally, the rebound in commodity prices we’ve seen... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has the threat of deflation disappeared? Fears of deflation have eased since the beginning of the year as oil prices have rebounded and global growth has stabilised. However, the appreciation of the euro and yen and continued weakness of... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
